Debris Starts to Settle After Siege of Mumbai, But Fallout Has Just Begun
As a shocked Indian nation recovers from the numbness of the extraordinary events over the past week, tensions have been inevitably stoked with its long-term nemesis and nuclear rival, Pakistan. As Indian government officials are under heavy pressure to carry out an urgent and decisive post-mortem, frantic diplomatic efforts, spearheaded by the US, have tried to avert further escalation in the crisis.
The nature of the terrorist attacks that occurred last week in India’s bustling financial capital, Mumbai, remarkably spanning sixty bloody hours, shocked not only the local population but stole the world’s attention.
Suicide attacks and the upsurge of terrorism is not a new phenomenon on the global stage, let alone the Indian subcontinent, however the abrasive and deadly manner in which a group of determined youths could wreck such great havoc with relative precision, was hard not to bring a chill down the spine of any on-looking government.
It served as a stark reminder, that even a highly-equipped security force is no match for prepared and persistent masterminds. It only emphasises the importance that no government can rest on their laurels in their battle against terrorism, and that the most affective form of counter-terrorism is not cutting the branch when a lethal episode comes to fruit, but striking the root while time permits.
Mumbai under siege
The bloody attacks began when ten seemingly well-trained and well-coordinated gunmen concurrently attacked several iconic sites across Mumbai. The deadly nature of the attacks and the area of coverage initially raised suspicion that there were at least a couple of dozen gunmen involved.
The first attack was thought to have started at the Chhatrapati Shivaji railway station at around 21:00 on 26th November 2008. What was considered as a typical fleet form of terror, only ended on the morning of Saturday November 29th, after bringing the city to a virtual standstill.
The targets involved symbolic tourist locations and crowded public areas across Mumbai, including Café Leopold, Oberoi-Trident hotel, Taj Mahal Palace hotel and even a hospital, amongst other targets.
The siege on both luxury hotels was particularly brutal, with burned-out corridors, blood-stained walls and devastated hotel rooms, just a tip of the cold-hearted terror that ensued.
Organised chaos
The attacks were clearly designed to maximise international coverage and send a jolt of fear to the global audience using the immense media attention that would naturally follow.
Whilst India, particularly in recent months, is not a new to suicide attacks, the tactics deployed by the gunmen caught India’s security forces off-guard.
Most terrorist attacks seemingly involve suicide missions, designed to carry out the maximum amount of damage within a defined period of time and space using timed explosive devices. However, the use of frontal assault tactics, a customary depiction of insurgency at more military specific areas, brought fear of a new dawn of urban terrorism in India.
Indian elite commandos, army and policy force desperately tried to end the siege in many hours of fierce gun battles. Remarkably, it appears that the gunmen had been equipped for a siege lasting many days and even intended on retuning to “base” after the attacks using the same inbound route.
Much of the shocked local population saw the unravelling events as a declaration of war on India. The nature and method of carnage, was comparable by many to the attacks of 9/11 in New York in 2001.
The group’s reign of indiscriminative terror left 188 dead, hundreds more injured and a trail of trauma that will long-live in the memory.
A nation left with many a question
As the debris of the carnage still settles, a shell-shocked population has demanded answers from the Indian government.
Many have accused the security forces of negligence and have pointed the finger firmly on the failings of Indian intelligence. The inefficiency of intelligence was further compounded with US security officials claiming that they had sent strong warnings of an upcoming naval attack. Furthermore, vital communication intercepted many weeks before, pointed to likely plots against the luxury hotels targeted in the attacks.
Security forces were widely criticised for their response times and were considered as inept to confront a bold group of armed youths.
The gunmen are believed to have started their journey on 13th November after hijacking a fishing trawler. The source of their journey is still unknown, although heavy suspicion has pointed to the Pakistani port city of Karachi.
The manner in which the gunmen were not intercepted on their journey for a number of days and were able to plan their attacks uninterrupted, added to anger amongst residents.
However, more pressing questions remain and the Indian government is under fierce pressure to provide the answers. The execution of the attacks and the weaponry used, point to a high-level of training. Training, planning and funding of these attacks would have likely occurred over many months if not years. Furthermore, the gunmen had in all probability support of local cells in coordinating such attacks.
The gunmen employed the so-called “fidayeen” technique, witnessed in recent years in Indian-administered Kashmir. However, after thawing of ties between India and Pakistan, there has been a relative if not untenable calm. The gunmen are strongly-believed to belong to the Kashmiri terrorist organisation, Lashkar-e Toiba and hail in all likelihood from neighbouring Pakistan.
All ten gunmen were thought to be in their early twenties. As nine of the ten gunmen were killed, particular significance lies on the account of the only captured gunmen, Azam Amir Qasab, now the investigators main hope of unravelling the network that orchestrated the madness.
Indian retaliation
Much in the same way as the abrasive attacks on the World Trade Centre in 2001 pressured the US into ‘instinctive’ action, India politicians, due to the wide-spread public anger and global attention, are inclined to respond in a determined manner.
The Indian government immediately issued strongly worded statements to their Pakistani counterparts, with Indian leaders vowing to respond in the strongest possible way.
After normality slowly returned to Mumbai, international fear has turned to a souring of ties between India and Pakistan as the fallout continues. War between the two nations is not new, and with both governments at ubiquitous loggerheads, it does not take much to diminish the current fragile stability between both sides.
Growing public pressure and the evident security failings have rocked India’s ruling Congress Party coalition, leading to some high-scale resignations and accusations of inadequacies from opposition parties.
Although the Indian government is likely to show resolve in their response owed mainly to fervent international pressure, Pakistan will not be expected to ‘get away’ lightly.
As a sign of India’s intent to win minimal concessions from the Pakistani government in the aftermath of the attacks, it is fully expectant that Pakistani diplomatic efforts will be matched with a show of faith.
For India, this sign of good faith, has come in the request for Pakistan to hand over twenty of its most wanted men, with India seemingly leaving little room for compromise in this request as part of their diplomatic initiative.
The seriousness of the growing crisis was illustrated with key political figures such as U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Arab League Secretary-General Amr Moussa, jetting in to mediate and urge calm and caution. The heat is certainly on Pakistan, and not the mourning nation of India, as global leaders pressure the Islamabad government to back up strong rhetoric with transparent and determined action.
Events indicate that there is much more to give in this debacle and although serenity may be restored in India financial capital, the fallout may have just started.