As we embark on the New Year ahead and reflect on the year gone by, many key influential events throughout 2008, serve to shape the international agenda over the coming 12 months and beyond.
2008 proved a contentious, at times tumultuous and certainly anxiety-driven year throughout the economic, political and social landscape.
Perhaps, most defining of all events throughout this year, threatening to set the pattern for years to come is the financial crisis that has come to dominate many a domestic agenda and has ripped through the global platform at a frantic pace.
The onset of the infamous credit crunch in the US had a ripple affect throughout Europe, the Far East and emerging economies. Brewing fear soon turned to panic amongst many of the world’s largest financial institutions and ultimately the dreaded economic recession that so many governments battled to avoid.
The turn of fortunes on the financial world was dramatic. With a matter of months, oil prices running at record prices of over $140 a barrel plunged to around the $40 a barrel mark. Stock markets around the world tumbled on fears of a greater global recession, with the economic output of many countries rapidly declining.
2009 threatens to be a bleak year for the world economy, and unfortunately no country can escape from this reality. Rising unemployment and a lack of credit, underline a financial crisis unseen since the devastating 1930’s great depression. That same crisis, that accelerated fascists such as Adolf Hitler and Benito Mussolini to the world stage, was ironically only ended with the onset of the Second World War.
The moral of the story is clear. Without an affective economic strategy to battle the financial perils currently experienced, economic troubles could soon see drastic political casualties. How will European countries, such as the UK, the subject of immense immigration in recent years, react when jobs are scarce and “foreigners” compete for all types of jobs and depleted social services?
With the onset of globalisation and an exponentially smaller world, a problem in one part of the world, be it economic or political, has grave consequences throughout continents. Economies and in many ways the foreign policies of key allies, have become entangled. As we have seen in 2008, there is no such thing as a distance crisis. A war, political crisis, insurgency or financial turmoil on the backdoor of one, will almost certainly arrive on the door step of another.
Contention in the Middle East
Middle East has ubiquitously operated as the zenith of transgression and hostility in recent history, and 2008 was no different.
The Arab-Israeli peace that George W. Bush so badly craves before his tenure at the helm comes to an end in early 2009 never came and the Palestinians and Israelis appear as distant as ever from reaching elusive and ultimately lasting peace.
Washington has been quick to point out that key steps have been laid on the Middle Eastern roadmap. However, in reality the situation often takes one step forward and two steps back. When two sides, like Hamas and the Israeli government, have such a gulf of views in between, how can peace ever materialise?
In truth, Israeli feels as threatened as ever. Surrounded by Arab hostility, growing nuclear capabilities in Iran and a new guerrilla type of warfare symbolised by Hamas and particularly an ever-powerful Hezbollah and not forgetting a dramatically higher birth-rate of its disgruntled Arab-Israeli population, it feels the need to strike back more than ever, not just safeguard its present but its very own existence. It remains to be seen if the government of Barrack Obama will afford the same level of direct support as the Bush administration to the Jewish state.
The tentative situation was best summarised, with the recent eruption of violence in the Gaza Strip, with the homes of many in the Gaza Strip shattered along with the peace process itself.
The controversial Iranian government remained under the spotlight, with mounting international pressure on ending Iran’s nuclear programmes resulting in little change to the hard-line policies or stance of the Iranian president. Iran has often been accused of supporting rogue elements in Iraq and Lebanon and has undoubtedly a strong influential hand with their fellow Shiites in power in Baghdad. Iran will continue to be a thorn on the international stage in 2009, and it remains to be seen if US diplomatic efforts will bear any fruit.
Iraq on the surface has witnessed tremendous security gains in 2008 and has signed a new strategic pact with the US that will define relationships from the beginning of 2009. Iraq benefitted greatly from oil windfalls in 2008, but with oil revenues down so drastically, Iraq will now fight an economic crisis as well as a battle on the political front. Many issues that was hoped to have been resolved this year and bring the country closer together, have evaporated all too soon.
Unsurprisingly the referendum scheduled for Kirkuk in July was never held and debate remains rife on many aspects of the constitution including a national hydrocarbon law and clarity over federalism and other stipulations defining the blue-print of the country. 2009, with the onset of provincial elections and the return of full sovereignty promises to deliver much, however if progress on the ground is anything like this year, the government will flatter to deceive.
Instability and disparity still engulf Iraq and none more so than Turkish offensives in Kurdistan Region, where most of this year has been characterised by Turkish bombings and even a mass land invasion in February. Such events have continuously highlighted that no amount of superior weaponry is an adequate substitute for tackling the root of your problems and stretching an arm to your crucial neighbours, as difficult as breaking historical taboos may prove.
Crisis in the Caucasus
Not in many decades, has Russia been placed under such direct international spotlight. With tentative strategic divisions amongst former soviet republics, Russia found itself fighting for regional supremacy and battling literally for influence, when they invaded South Ossetia and Abkhazia, becoming embroiled in a much-condemned war with Georgia, which briefly resulted in the isolation of Russia on the global stage and threatened to damage relations with NATO.
Russia has shown this year, that it will not stand by and become by-passed in political and military standing by NATO, especially in areas it still determines as its historical sphere of influence. Russia’s determination to wave its fist in the year in the defence of its strategic interests was highly ominous. With debates still lingering over break-away regions of Georgia, the notorious deployment US ‘star wars’ missile systems in Eastern Europe and the quest of some former soviet republics to evade Russian grasp under the confinement of NATO, 2008 may prove a very prominent turning-point with the once world super power and its Cold War nemesis.
Events in South Ossetia, Abkhazia and other separatist regions throughout the world were hardly helped with Kosovo been granted independence in spite of fierce opposition from Russia and Serbia. The ability of the Kosovan’s to attain nationhood with such broad international support has now certainly set precedence for many years to come.
The siege of Mumbai
Events this past year in south Asia, threatened to set the stage for yet another war in 2009. The abrasive siege of Mumbai by a group of hard-line terrorists, allegedly from Pakistan, stole the worlds gaze and shocked the Indian subcontinent. Rarely have such a small group of determined but highly trained terrorists, been able to impose such long-term panic and bloodshed in a major international city. Most terrorists or gunmen aim to maximise damage in a very defined period of time and in a confined area, these groups of young gunmen however, battled hundreds of elite Indian security forces for the best part of 3 days, killing many civilians and leaving a mental-scars on the population.
With the Indian government under intense pressure to react by an angry and stunned population, demands of concessions from their Pakistani counterparts may not bear any fruit but the seed of future conflict.
The attacks in India have demonstrated that one bold attack in one location has drastic ramifications across the world. This was underlined as leading figures from US, Europe and other global powers flocked to avert a highly damaging escalation between nuclear armed neighbours.
The need for unified action
The need for unified international responses could not be more pertinent than at the current time. Global hotspots threaten to entice neighbouring countries into greater conflict. US forces remain stretched in Iraq and Afghanistan, but the battle for global stability and peace has just begun.
Many battles and crisis in Africa continue to evade the world’s attention. Domestic tensions, as well as a number of neighbours on the brink of war, threaten to devastate the African population, at the time when they are most vulnerable.
The West would do well to avoid full-focus on wars and crisis where it has a direct interest and start to look at the bigger picture. The focus on tackling world poverty must not stop, because powerful nations have bigger economic and political fish on their plate.
There is greater onus than ever on the UN to take action to prevent world poverty, promote peace and enforce democratic values.
Gone are the days when the world could choose to ignore the plight of innocent people or observe passively as nations suffered due to strategic ploys of powers with old-fashioned colonial mindsets. The world has witnessed, that a seed of conflict or dispute sown one year, should not be forgotten until it blooms and causes greater carnage in another year.
A breath of fresh
2008 was a negative year in many ways, and 2009 may well continue along that line. However, with the onset of the global economic crisis, growing friction in key parts of the world and general anxiety on the world stage, Barrack Obama, the President-elect of US, was in many ways not just a symbol of change and aspiration for the US but the personification of hope for the greater international community.
Immense pressure may be placed on the already broad shoulders of Obama, but the world in general needs a reminder that adversity can be overcome by sheer determination, belief and working together. For prosperity on the global stage, one can ill-afford to go alone but must strive forward in unity and with shared goals, values and aspirations for sake of greater peace and prosperity.
There is no better example of working together on fulfilling a shared vision of a brighter future, than the need to tackle environmental issues such as climate change with a unified stance.
After all, compounded by a global population that could easily double in the next 50 years, meaning more mouths to feed and more competition for natural resources, if mankind is unable resolve such a fundamental issue that threatens to change our very existence, then no amount of battling on economic and political fronts today may ever really matter tomorrow.