Category Archives: Kurdistan Region

Unsatisfied with a raging war with Sunni militants, Maliki launches new front against the Kurds

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Relations between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad were already at a historical low. Yet for those who thought that ties could not get any worse, a series of events last week saw the line redrawn.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki launched a fierce attack on the Kurds on national television, warning “We will not resort to silence while Erbil is a headquarters for Isis, Ba’athists, al-Qaeda and terrorists.”

Such strong remarks drew the inevitable ire of the Kurdish leadership, with Kurdish MP’s soon boycotting the Iraqi parliament with Kurdistan President Massaud Barzani hitting back at a Maliki who he deemed to have become “hysterical” and “lost his balance” and who he urged to stand down.

The Kurds have frequently warned that a third-tenure as Prime Minister for Maliki would signal curtains on Iraq.

On Friday, Kurds moved to secure the strategic oil fields in Bai Hassan and the Makhmour area to defend the oil infrastructure from what the Kurds deemed “politically motivated sabotage.”

KRG Ministry of Natural Resources released a statement confirming the Kurds had “moved to secure the oil fields after learning of orders by officials in the federal Ministry of Oil in Baghdad to sabotage the recent mutually-agreed pipeline infrastructure linking the Avana dome with the Khurmala field.”

A furious Baghdad had already gone as far as banning cargo flights to Kurdistan and even moved to halt international flights. At the same time it replaced Hoshiyar Zebari as Foreign Minister with Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Hussain al-Shahristani.

The escalating rhetoric and tit-for-tat moves would be bad enough in any normal day in Iraq with Baghdad and Erbil governments bordering each other.

Anyone observing last weeks would be forgiving for thinking that the Iraqi problem is limited to the Kurds and the Maliki government. Yet there is a not so small dilemma of an Islamist State in the middle.

Over a month since Mosul, Tikrit and large swathes of territory was taken over by ISIS led Sunni insurgents, Iraq is gripped in violence. Despite military aid from Russia and Iran, Iraqi forces have largely failed to dislodge the militants.

While the militants have not made advances, what they have done is essentially entrench their new borders and with it Iraq’s partition into 3 separate entities.

The Kurdish Peshmerga forces have been involved in fierce battles with ISIS militants, filling a crucial security vacuum and housing hundreds of thousands of refugees. But it seems that Baghdad is intent on creating more enemies in the midst of a deadly sectarian war.

The sharp escalation of tensions between Kurds and Baghdad may jeopardise Kurdish support against ISIS – why battle insurgents and risk lives for a premier that is essentially accusing you of collaborating with them anyway?

Ironically, it was the Kurdistan Region that once protected a Maliki on the run from Saddam Hussein. Shiites at the time fought Saddam against centrist Sunni repression and many sought to establish an Islamic state at the time akin to Tehran. In 2014, the tables have merely turned with Sunnis on the attack.

In the midst of tension between Kurds and a raging sectarian war, the Iraq political chambers are getting increasingly empty. August 12th is the new date set to reconvene parliament, why such a laboured political process if there is real intent to heal national rifts and at a time of national emergency?

Unless Maliki steps down and a reconciliatory stance is adopted in Baghdad, the Kurds will assume the next gear in their independence drive.

Baghdad authorities may be furious with the Kurds but then what repercussion is left to hit the Kurds? Oil exports were already halted, share of national budget withheld, no government exists, Kurds stripped of ministries, and cargo flights are suspended.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc

The time to push for independence?

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Since the fall of Saddam Hussein and particularly in the latest sectarian storm as ISIS has swept through large parts of northern Iraq, many in the international arena point to the carving up and disintegration of Iraq. However, from a Kurdish perspective, it is a question of how can you break something that wasn’t whole to start with?

It is no secret that the dreams of the Kurds have always started and finished at an independent homeland. They gained nothing but genocide and repression under Saddam and they have little to gain now as part of an Iraq with a vicious cycle of violence and sectarian warfare that the Kurds want little to do with.

The booming, stable and prosperous Kurdistan Region was a reflection of anything but Iraq. Even before recent developments in Iraq, Kurdistan was virtually independent anyway. There were missing ingredients that the Kurds have worked hard to bridge. One of these was independent oil exports and control of their own revenues, as opposed to been at the mercy and goodwill of Baghdad for share of national budget.

With the Kurdish plains washed with so much oil, the revenues the Kurds could soon gain would far outweigh anything that Baghdad could ever give.

The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Nouri al-Maliki led Baghdad government have been at logger heads over oil rights for several years. Simply put, control of oil revenues and oil exports was a remaining noose that Baghdad had over Kurdistan. Kurdistan has tried to cut this remaining umbilical cord to Baghdad by working hard to build strong ties with Turkey, oil majors and building their own independent oil pipeline.

The second key ingredient to Kurdish push to independence was the status of disputed territories. Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution laid out clear steps and clear timelines for the resolution of such territories. Yet almost 7 years since the original deadline for its implementation, owed to a lack of appetite and constant foot dragging by Baghdad, article 140 was never implemented.

Now with the recent ISIS onslaught and latest turmoil in Iraq, not only can the Kurds press ahead and increase oil exports, they have now gained control of vast disputed territories, including Kirkuk, the symbol of the Kurdish struggle.

Depending on how and if the Sunni insurgency can be contained as well as well as the  time expended in doing so, Kurds may well fast-track their push to independence. But for now, they are willing to bide their time and crucially consolidate their newly expanded borders and bring stability to their areas.

Who can blame the Kurds, who never wanted to be a part of the Iraqi state in the first place, to push for separation when the country is yet again in sectarian flames?

Self-determination is a natural right at the calmest of times, let alone at times of war with bloodshed on your doorstep.

Even Turkey, traditionally a staunch opponent of Kurdish nationalism, has come to realise that not only is Kurdish independence a natural path that ultimately cannot be stopped, but they can gain tremendous benefit from a secular, oil rich, strategic partners in the tumultuous new age of the Middle East.

Kurdistan was always going to become an independent state, now the timelines have been greatly accelerated with the new crisis in Iraq.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc

First sale of Kurdish oil unveils a new era in the Kurdish national renaissance

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The Kurdish national renaissance has assumed a number of key milestones in a short but remarkable period of time. The onset of the first independent sale of Kurdish oil stored at the Turkish port of Ceyhan, was another critical milestone that gives Kurdistan a new political, economic and strategic gear as its enters a new phase in its evolution.

The decision to export its oil to the international market, much to the dismay of Baghdad, came as the official Iraqi election results saw incumbent Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki attain the front foot in his quest for a third term.

As Kurdistan has continued its ascendancy in recent years, control of oil became a significant factor of dispute between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and Baghdad. Put simply, control of oil exports was the last remaining umbilical cord that Baghdad had over the Kurds.

This leverage was clearly on display when Baghdad failed to pay Kurdish salaries and the Kurdish share of the national budget as punishment for the Kurdish move to build and export oil to Turkey via its new independent oil pipeline.

Baghdad filed for arbitration against Ankara almost immediately at the International Chamber of Commerce, but in reality Turkey knew and openly accepted that the consequences with Baghdad were secondary to the strategic enhancement of their ties with the Kurds.

The storage capacity at Ceyhan was close to the limit, Baghdad appeared unwilling to give the Kurds the concessions it demanded and after months of negotiations a breakthrough was not about to take place anytime soon. All the while, the Kurds were in an ironic predicament. Kurdistan, with its billions of barrels of oil reserves and with millions of barrels stored in Ceyhan waiting to be sold to many international suitors, were at the mercy of Baghdad and couldn’t even pay salaries.

When you have masses of oil and wealth under your feet, which government in any part of the world would accept been dictated, undermined and held to ransom by a third-party?

Instead of waiting for hand-outs from Baghdad, the Kurds could soon surpass the value of their 17% share of the national budget with their own exports.

Turkish Energy Minister Taner Yildiz confirmed that 1.4 millions of oil was loaded via tankers and crucially backed further export of Kurdish oil as more oil is inevitably pumped.

In the same way as threats to independent export of oil, Baghdad continuously warned against oil majors entering the region and threatening to punish and blacklist such companies. In the end oil majors accepted the risks and after Exxon-Mobil entered the fray in 2011, a flock of majors simply couldn’t sit on the sidelines and waste unique opportunities.

In reality, Kurdistan wouldn’t have taken such a bold step without support not just from Turkey but also European powers over its constitutional rights. The oil was not sold on the black market but in an international, open and transparent market and to European customers.

Almost immediately after the first independent export of Kurdish oil, Kurdistan President Massaud Barzani went on a scheduled tour of Europe. The message from Barzani was clear – if Baghdad did not change its policies towards the Kurds, the Kurds could deploy other options it has on the table.

France clearly supported the Kurds in their move to market oil independently and according to Falah Mustafa, the head of Kurdistan Region’s Department of Foreign Relations, France “showed their willingness to support us in the next stage”.

It’s the not the first time that Kurds have threatened to take action against the centralist policies of Baghdad. After continuous failed promises by Maliki, the timing of the move echoed through the Iraqi political chambers that Kurds mean business and will match action with rhetoric.

The oil exports were crucially done before the establishment of the next government in Baghdad, affording the Kurds a more powerful negotiating position. They will not be duped into a new coalition with promises of allowing Kurdish oil exports. Instead the right of the Kurds to export oil becomes a prerequisite as opposed to a demand.

The Kurdish historical move is all the more significant that it was supported by Turkey, marking a dramatic turnaround in fortunes from a time when any notion of Kurdish nationalism was met with threats, harsh rhetoric and red lines.

Oil exports can only increase from these levels and serves as the fuel for independence – literally. Of course, Turkey acknowledges what oil export pipelines and sales means for the future of Kurdistan.

Yet, Turkey has so much to gain from a Kurdish friend with growing strategic and economic importance than an uncertain Baghdad leaning more towards Tehran, especially as the sectarian fires continue to rage in Iraq.

The Turkish position is even more ironic giving the U.S. resistance and unease of growing Kurdish independence, export of its oil and the growing ties between Erbil and Ankara that the US tried so hard to foster in the first place.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc

After two Maliki terms and broken promises, wary Kurds keep “all options on the table”

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With the much anticipated Iraqi election results yet to announced, it is certain that the next government formation will be as fraught as 2010 and that Iraq will struggle to stitch together its falling pieces.

For the Kurds, for all their criticism of incumbent Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Baghdad, they played a crucial hand in creating the Maliki monster. Complaint of Maliki’s centralist tendencies and lack of real intent to resolve key issues between Baghdad and the Kurdistan Region goes back to Maliki’s first tenure at the helm.

After much hesitation and months of negotiations, the Kurds played a crucial role in the eventual breakthrough that saw Maliki secure a second term. The basis of the Kurdish partnership on both occasions was several firm demands and countless promises from Maliki.

Yet not only were most of these promises not kept in the first term but Maliki with growing power and dominance decided that the majority of the promises that underpinned the second term went openly unfulfilled as well.

Now as State of Law Coalition looks certain to secure most seats in the elections, Maliki is already attempting to piece together votes for a third term in power.

Kurdish support amidst failed promises the first time is unfortunate, for a second time unacceptable and now for a third time it would be unforgivable.

11 years since the fall of Saddam is hardly a small window of opportunity for progress and implementation of key steps. However, much of the key demands of the Kurds have failed to be implemented. Disputed territories remain unresolved, national budget continues to undermine Kurds, a national census continues to be postponed, a national hydrocarbon law does not exist and Baghdad continues to try and maintain the umbilical cord to Kurdistan.

This week Kurdistan President Massaud Barzani was unambiguous on his view of Maliki and the downward spiral in Iraq, labeling governance under Maliki as “totalitarianism” and with “no partnership”. “He is the number one responsible for it. He was capable of not allowing the whole process to go in that direction,” Barzani added.

Barzani warned that “all options are on the table,” for the Kurds, threatening to boycott the whole process.

The Kurdish patience is wearing thin and Barzani is clearly does not want entertain further waiting games for several more years but instead emphasised the time for “final decisions”.

Barzani’s statements come as Maliki attempted to reach out to the Kurds, ironically as debates over oil exports threaten to escalate and as the Kurdish share of the budget has been frequently withheld to pressure the Kurds.

After months of delays and lack of progress with Baghdad, Kurdistan has decided to sell oil independently with Baghdad promising strong retaliation of their own. However, Barzani is not about to back down from this game changing and historical decision for Kurdistan.

For the Kurds, tangible and guaranteed actions are needed as opposed to the usual rhetoric and promises if they are to join the next government. If it takes several months to achieve these practical steps to convince the Kurds and delay government formation then so be it. It is better to waste months rather than more years.

The Kurds cannot be held accountable for the deepening disintegration of Iraq, Maliki’s centralist policies and failure to curb sectarianism and insurgency have already done plenty to ensure that.

Back home, the Kurds must quickly form a much delayed unity government. As Kurdish parties continue negotiations and consultations, Barzani stated “all Kurdish political parties now have a common stance on how to deal with Baghdad and the next steps in the Iraqi political process.”

A Kurdish position that is not endorsed by all regional parties will simply be exploited by Maliki and his backers in Tehran and greatly weaken the Kurdish hand.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc

The rise of Kurdistan must not come to the detriment of future generations

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The new faceplate of Kurdistan is not an indicator of progress society still has to make

In most countries, extensive transformation of infrastructure, economy and society is a lengthy process over a considerable period of time. In Kurdistan, immense changes have taken place in little over a decade.

New high-rise buildings, luxury restaurants, 5-star hotels and dozens of malls now dot the Erbil landscape and the change in a short-period of time is remarkable. However, do society, the attitude and understanding of people and general skills and education really advance in parallel?

Evidently, transformation in the faceplate of the city is not enough for Kurdistan as a whole to really advance. In western countries, it took centuries for infrastructure and society to get where it is today.

The trials and tribulations and sufferings of the Kurds to get to the stature of today are taking for granted, especially amongst the youths.

In Kurdistan it is now common to see families own two or more cars in a single household or enjoy multiple incomes. People carry with them the latest smart phones and continuously strive for the next best thing. Just 5 years ago, old cars even from the 80’s were still prevalent, internet and technology was enjoyed by the few and there was hardly a mall or luxury hotel in sight. But while a rapidly growing city may belie its tender years in terms of real modernisation, it can be misleading in the progression of greater society.

A prime example is the attitude towards waste and litter. Kurdish families stock up on all sorts of food and dress in their glittering traditional Kurdish outfits and leave their homes in the early morning, spending much time securing a beautiful spot amongst the great landscape of Kurdistan to savour their day off. The trip is dominated by expressions of how comfortable, enjoyable and scenic the surrounding is. Yet after several hours of enjoyment and feasting, most Kurdish families leave a tale of destruction – litter and waste.

Rubbish and waste literally dot the surrounding area where the family sat. The blasé attitude employed amongst the masses is a detriment to the future generations. Why not allow another family to revel in the enjoyment you tasted another week?

As materialism grows in Kurdistan, so does the seemingly selfish nature of some people. Without working together, improving bonds within communities and an appreciation for the future amongst the masses, the advancement of Kurdistan will be hampered.

A selfish personal drive to attain fortune and enjoyment will see future generations suffer. Take to the road in Kurdistan and rarely does one give way to another or give thanks to other drivers.

Kurdistan beauty lies in its millennia old heritage, in its culture that is passed from generation to generation for thousands of years, in its immense hospitality and warm hearts and in the ability of the people to stick together and triumph against the odds.

As capitalism take grip and consumerism and new buildings rise, this must not dilute Kurdish culture. With the exception of the newly renovated Kurdish Textile and Cultural Museum in Qalat, museums and centres where culture can be preserved, displayed and celebrated are rare.

Foreigners and tourists must get a taste of the privilege to live amongst the Kurds and Kurdish culture and not just enjoyment in the best hotels and restaurants.

Education must be enhanced in Kurdistan so it is the Kurds who dominate highly-skilled jobs and technical and medical profiles. Above all else, the people must obtain an understanding of the importance of hard-work and putting real effort in achieving their goals without shortcuts.

Some people want to work as few hours as possible, put minimal effort and still become rich. A key action is promote and strengthen the private sector and reduces the strong dependency on the government for jobs.

The ability to combine the needs of today with the needs of tomorrow is essential. The growing pollution in Erbil can never be a good thing. The lack of a public transport system is detrimental as the road network cannot accommodate all these cars no matter how fast the Kurdish government builds new roads.

People continue to waste immense amounts of electricity and water and complain about lack of services. The appreciation for saving electricity and energy should not be valued on monetary means alone but on the benefits of the future generation.

This is the same case with recycling. Tons of wastage does not just miraculously disappear. It needs go somewhere and unfortunately with great effect on the future environment. Tons of plastics and metals could be recycled than end up in landfill sites.

The moral of this story is not to downplay the phenomenal rise of Kurdistan. It is to build a Kurdistan that will be sustained for hundreds of years and that many generations can continuously enjoy. The current selfish lifestyle and disregard for greater society, environment and the wellbeing of others, can only last a certain course.

The bottom line is that no disregard and neglect today is without future pay pack tomorrow.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc

After many false dawns, Kurdistan finally forms new government

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Just shy of 7 months since the Kurdistan Parliamentary elections in September. An agreement to form a new government was finally reached. After shifting of the political landscape and breaking the status quo, forming a government was always going to be difficult and protracted, but even by this token the lengthy delay was a disappointing blemish for Kurdistan.

Throughout the past few months, there have been many false dawns. Only last week there was growing hope that an inclusive government incorporating all the five main parties would be formed. Less than week later, this proved to be a false expectation as the political picture took another twist but at least a government will now be formed.

KDP and Gorran announced an agreement for a new coalition government along with the Islamic League (Komal). Crucially, this left the PUK on the sidelines with the official line that the PUK is still mulling over it options but clearly the PUK would be disappointed at developments with its options now to swallow pride and accept what it is given on the table or declare its opposition.

The Islamic Union (Yekgirtu) also remained undecided on its participation in the new coalition government.

Either way, the prospect of a parliament session reconvening next week is a welcome boost for Kurdistan just days before the Iraqi national elections and Kurdistan provincial elections.

In democracy, any political party has its ups and downs and the idea of pleasing every party is a non-starter.

If the cabinet is going to be divided in manner to appease all parties then why hold elections in the first place? Why would a political party care if takes a blow at the polls if it is able to secure its desired number of positions anyway?

This is particularly true of the PUK who finished third in the elections. The PUK must now regroup, change its strategy and win back lost voters. This is the trace of a true democracy and happens in every major western country. The PUK remains influential but cannot cling on outdated strategic agreements or demand an equitable distribution of posts.

As for Gorran, participation in the new government completes a remarkable transformation. They stood for change, for transparency, for reform and for a different Kurdistan. A substantial number of voters signed up to their manifesto, but can Gorran now deliver?

Playing the opposition or running a joint government are different matters. Politics can be very fickle and Gorran is now in a position where it can continue its ascendency or find itself in the opposition shadows come the next election.

Gorran has been the given the platform to implement change and its election programme with the ministries it has secured. It has secured the vital ministries of Peshmerga, Economy and Finance, Trade and Industry, Endowment & Religious Affairs, Chairmanship of the Investment Board as wells as the speaker of parliament.

Control of the Peshmerga ministry was vital for Gorran. Historically the Peshmerga forces have been dominated by the KDP and PUK. In fact the PUK still has strong influence over security, even if its voter base has dwindled. Gorran can now play a leading role in creating state security forces.

The KDP and Gorran have agreed on a set of principles that bodes well for Kurdistan. Timely and measured implementation of these reforms is now vital. A bold and encompassing strategy should be matched with real action and not just rhetoric and lengthy implementation

With Kurdistan holding its first provincial elections in eight years, this will further placate changes in the Kurdistan political landscape.

Changes in legislature mean that provincial councils will have more power. As such provincial elections have taken on much more significance for Kurds than the Iraqi national elections that are unlikely to result in any real change in Baghdad from a Kurdish perspective. This is demonstrated by election campaigns throughout Erbil focusing on candidates securing provincial votes.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

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Growing hope of elusive government formation in Kurdistan as the PUK internal crisis intensifies and endangers stability.

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As the Kurdish public grow increasingly frustrated and impatient at the lengthy delay and protracted negotiations around government formation, there were recent signs that the deadlock can be finally broken.

The onset of 3 strong parties was unprecedented in Kurdistan’s democratic experience. Although, this is an encouraging sign of political and democratic maturity, this new ground brought with it new challenges.

As with any political or social landscape, the situation will constantly change and as such politics will have to follow suit. Finding a compromise on government formation has been difficult but this has been made even more difficult as the region and political parties became accustomed to new norms.

This is particularly true of the PUK. Since the tragic illness to their leader and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, they have struggled to agree a common roadmap and way forward. It has been evident ever since the first notable split, when Gorran was formed in 2009, that there was increasing disagreement and disunity with the ranks about the future and strategy of the party.

However, as long as a constructive and reconciliatory tone is maintained, evolution and vigorous debate over the future of the party can be healthy. It is a sign of changing times and adapting to the new local and regional climate. After all, no party or political leader can expect that the policy and approach of yesterday can merely continue indefinitely.

PUK’s internal instability has accelerated in recent weeks with a growing media war. The decision to postpone the party elusive party convention caused rifts to deepen among its main council leaders Hero Ibrahim Ahmed, Kosrat Rasul and Barham Salih. Salih resigned soon after the postponement of the party convention and was particularly vociferous in the need for reform in the aftermath of the disappointing parliamentary elections.

Amidst the growing rifts in a major political party and an emboldened Gorran on the scene as the second largest party, the recipe for prolonged political wrangling and delays was there. How difficult would discussions on a wider level be if the PUK did not have united front at home?

After 20 or so rounds of talks around government formation, there was a glimmer of hope that concord was finally struck. Gorran would relinquish role of Deputy Prime Minister to the PUK, accept the position of parliament speaker and would symbolically attain the post of Interior Ministry.

The position of interior ministry would be a coup for Gorran especially as it means they can play a more pivotal role in government affairs and upholding their election manifesto, and can oversee security forces that they allege lean to the major parties.

The PUK internal struggle harms Kurdish stability in the region and Kurdistan Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani warned the security of the region and the stability of Sulaimaniya was a red line. The KDP can play a vital role in soothing cracks in its ally.

The situation is not helped that in spite of diluted seats, the PUK has sway over most of the security forces in Sulaimaniya province. No doubt that even some of these security forces have allegiances to Gorran and also sentiment towards certain party leaders within the PUK.

So what does all the internal party rifts and constant delays in forming a government mean for Kurdistan. For a start, if the Kurds are not united at home, how can they be united away?

The Iraqi national elections are fast approaching and with the continued illness of Jalal Talabani, it is not clear who the Kurds will even propose for post of President. Distribution of posts amongst the Kurds in Baghdad could well be another item of contention.

With continued clouds over Kirkuk and disputed territories, a new sectarian war between Sunnis and Shiites, and the continued stand-off over oil exports, Kurdish disunity will greatly harm their greater goals.

The need for a united approach in external affairs is evident in the different stance towards Syrian Kurdish autonomy. The PUK and Gorran have publicly supported the onset of autonomous cantons in Kurdish areas whereas the KDP have refused to recognise the new administration. In such a case, what is the official position of the KRG?

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

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Failure to form new cabinet threatens to harm Kurdish interests home and broad

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The results of the Kurdistan legislative elections of 2013 changed the political dynamic of the region. The PUK-KDP dominance of the political arena was broken by the onset of Gorran as the second largest party with 24 seats. This placed the PUK into a difficult predicament with their diminishing influence as they claimed 18 seats.

For decades, the political cake was split roughly down the middle between the KDP and PUK as part of their strategic agreement. Now, faced with a new reality, the PUK has found it difficult to relinquish its partner status in government and historical control of Sulaimaniya province especially to its arch rival, Gorran.

In turn, this has placed the KDP in a difficult dilemma. The KDP cannot maintain its strategic relations and carry the PUK and at the same time appease Gorran and other opposition groups that have risen in ascendancy at the polls.

The PUK still holds considerable influence over security forces even if their political showing has been diluted. It is not ready to play second fiddle and relinquish political eminence where it previously enjoys several key ministries.

However, at the same time, any political accord that doesn’t place the electoral weighting of each party and the election outcome at the forefront of discussions is a setback to the political will of the people.

The PUK decline at the polls has coincided with the illness to their leader and Iraqi President Jalal Talabani. In many ways, the PUK has struggled to adapt to the new political realities and evolve its strategy. Internal friction is one of the reasons the PUK has found it difficult to agree on a common position on cabinet formation.

It has been trying to convene the party’s forth congress since the last elections in Kurdistan but this was recently postponed. Prior to holding its 4th General Assembly, it has announced that Talabani will be replaced by a three-member council consisting of PUK Deputy Secretary General Kosrat Rasul, Second Deputy Secretary General Barham Salih and Talabani’s wife Hêro Ibrahim Ahmed. This will help alleviate the leadership debate that has intensified since the last elections, but does not provide the long-term remedy needed.

Distribution of ministry posts was never going to be easy with a key debate around the role of Deputy Prime Minister contested by both Gorran and PUK. The solution is to seemingly create 3 deputy positions for each main party but this brings with it other drawbacks. Gorran, whose stock has risen since 2009 as the PUK’s rival, was not about to accept a stronger PUK hand in the cabinet, having attained more votes.

Even in an opposition mode in a future government, Gorran would have a significant influence on political proceedings that may hamper the passing of laws that the KDP cannot ignore.

A national unity government may be in the best interest of the Kurdistan Region but it has led to months of wrangling and accusations amongst parties over the failure to reach an agreement. Such is the stakes of cabinet representation on a regional level that Iran has tried to exert pressure to ensure PUK retains relative standings.

Kurdistan is going through a crucial juncture amidst a reviving war between Baghdad and Sunni militants that threatens the security of the Kurdistan Region, fast approaching general elections in Iraq and heated debates between Erbil and Baghdad over national budget and exporting of oil via Turkey.

Solidarity, compromise and agreement are important to serve the interests of Kurdistan and its people aside from any partisan interests.

Such delays affect the confidence of the people who set out in their millions to cast their vote. At the same time, it places parliament in great limbo.

At the upcoming Iraqi national elections, Kurdistan must strive for unity especially in Kirkuk province and to maintain leverage in its many disputes with Baghdad.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

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Commentary for Vo Tima Newspaper (Greece)

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Greek Version (English version below)

Ο πετρελαιοκίνητος εθνικισμός των Κούρδων

Τούρκοι και κούρδοι ηγέτες έθεσαν σε εφαρμογή μια ενεργειακή συμφωνία που υπόσχεται να ενισχύσει την ημιαυτόνομη περιοχή του ιρακινού Κουρδιστάν με μια ανεξάρτητη ροή εσόδων από το πετρέλαιο

«Καύσιμο για την ανεξαρτησία» Δημοσιογράφος και αναλυτής του Ekurd.net μιλάει στο «Βήμα»

«Τα εκατομμύρια βαρέλια του πετρελαίου από το Κιρκούκ χρησιμεύουν, κυριολεκτικά, ως καύσιμο για την ανεξαρτησία των Κούρδων του Ιράκ» λέει μιλώντας στο «Βήμα» ο Μπασντάρ Ισμαήλ, δημοσιογράφος και αναλυτής στο Ekurd.net.

«Οι πρόσφατες πετρελαϊκές συμβάσεις με την Τουρκία έχουν προκαλέσει σάλο στη Βαγδάτη και στην Ουάσιγκτον, που φοβούνται νέα αποσταθεροποίηση στο Ιράκ. Αλλά η Αγκυρα έχει καταλάβει ότι οι Κούρδοι είναι φυσικοί εταίροι της και αναδυόμενοι στρατηγικοί παίκτες στη νέα Μέση Ανατολή. Για τους Κούρδους, η Τουρκία είναι μια πύλη ζωτικής σημασίας, χωρίς την οποία δεν μπορεί να ανθήσει η οικονομία τους. Από αυτή την άποψη, η Αγκυρα γίνεται, με πολύ παράδοξο τρόπο, ο καταλύτης του κουρδικού μετασχηματισμού» τονίζει ο Ισμαήλ.

«Συνειδητοποιεί η Τουρκία ότι ο δρόμος προς την ανεξαρτησία είναι ο φυσικός προορισμός για το Κουρδιστάν; Φυσικά. Αλλά ένα ισχυρό ιρακινό Κουρδιστάν θα είναι παράγοντας ειρήνης και σταθερότητας για την Τουρκία, και για τη δική της ταραγμένη κουρδική μειονότητα. Στην Τουρκία, στο Ιράκ, στη Συρία και στο Ιράν οι Κούρδοι είναι εδώ για να μείνουν, και η Αγκυρα έχει καταλάβει ότι η ξεπερασμένη πολιτική της που βασιζόταν στον στενό εθνικισμό ήταν μια αυταπάτη, που δεν την προστάτευε. Ακόμη και η Τουρκία δεν μπορεί να αγνοήσει το τεράστιο στρατηγικό, οικονομικό και πολιτικό βάρος που έχουν αποκτήσει οι Κούρδοι σήμερα» καταλήγει ο Ισμαήλ.

English Version

The Kurdish national renaissance is underscored by a booming Kurdistan Region that is far cry from the dark days of the past. A booming economy is underpinned by a rapidly growing energy sector and billions of barrels of oil that is serving as the fuel for independence – literally. Recent Turkish oil contracts with Kurdistan have caused a stir in Baghdad, but in truth Ankara is already neck deep in Kurdistan with billions of trade and hundreds of companies. In many ways Turkey has seemingly chosen Erbil as its partner over Baghdad and these oil contracts placate growing strategic ties. Yet ironically just a few years ago, Turkey was ever-anxious at Kurdish national developments and setting red-lines for intervention.

With a fast unravelling and conflict strewn Middle Eastern, Turkey has fast realised that far from a threat, the Kurds are its natural partners and newfound strategic actors that Turkey needs and can rely on in stormy regional waters. At the same time, Turkey is the vital gate that Kurdistan cannot flourish without. Ankara in many ways is the enabler of the rapid Kurdish transformation. With a win-win situation for both sides, it’s no wonder that new pipelines and contracts are been signed.

Does Turkey realise the independence path that is a natural destination for Kurdistan – of course. But a strong Kurdistan Region actually helps brings peace and not instability to Turkey and its own restive Kurds, and also helps influence Kurds elsewhere.

Whether in Syria, Turkey, Iraq or Iran, the Kurds are here to stay and Ankara has realised that its out-dated policies based on a narrow nationalistic mind-sets were a delusion that hampered Turkish nationalism, not protect it. Even Turkey cannot ignore the sheer strategic, economic and political weight that the Kurds now bring.

Signed, tested, flowing and ready for world markets – Kurds will sell oil via new pipeline with or without Baghdad

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The new pipeline linking crude oil from Kurdistan to the Turkish port of Ceyhan is signed, tested, flowing and ready to be presented to world markets. The only hitch appears to be elusive thumbs-up from Baghdad to officially dispatch and sell the oil.

However, having come so far from numerous contracts signed between Erbil and Ankara, millions invested in the planning and construction and testing of the pipeline, the oil gathering pace at thousands of barrels is not designed to sit in Turkish silo’s indefinitely waiting for Baghdad. It’s there to be sold and let there be no doubt, it will ultimately be sold with or without the consent of Baghdad.

Over the past few years, thousands of barrels were sold to Turkey, Iran and local markets via trucks and the oil pipeline doesn’t change the end outcome, only the method of transportation.

Turkey has been careful not to alienate Iraq, who has persistently voiced their discontent at increasingly closer ties Ankara has with the Kurds and with the Kurds growing independence, and has tried to reassure the Iraqi authorities in recent months.

Turkish Energy Minister, Taner Yildiz, stated last week that they would wait for approval from Baghdad prior to shipping the crude and expressed hope that a deal can be reached this month.

But is Turkey really about to rip-up the contracts, abandon the pipelines and its high stakes and interests because Baghdad deems growing independence of the Kurds against their interests? In reality, Turkey is already neck-deep in Kurdistan and is not about to backtrack. It benefits tremendously from easy accessible Kurdish oil and gas, from billions of dollars of trade and having the Kurds as strategic partners at a time of great regional turmoil.

Turkey or any other major power cannot overlook a region that has at least 45 billion barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of gas. According to some estimates, Kurdistan Region would rank 10th amongst countries with most oil reserves. Ironically, this doesn’t take into account the Kirkuk province that the Kurds have long sought.

The flows to the pipeline are set to start at 300,000 bpd and rise to 400,000 bpd. The ambitious Kurdish government is targeting 1 million bpd by 2015 and 2 million by 2019.

Every year, the Kurds seemingly fight a battle to secure share of the Iraqi federal budget, and strikingly for Kurdistan, it could soon receive more via the pipeline than the share of the revenues it struggles to receive from Baghdad. Ultimately Baghdad seeks to gain significantly from Kurdish oil as revenue would be received centrally and then split according to previous revenue sharing agreements – a fact that stubborn Iraqi pride overlooks.

All this means is that the Kurds will soon cut the umbilical cord that keeps it reliant on Baghdad. It put the boot firmly on the feet of the Kurds. However, any side-stepping of Baghdad in oil revenues would increase hostilities and serves to ensure that Baghdad digs their heels in over article 140 and Kirkuk and other festering disputes.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc