Category Archives: Kurdish Globe

Continue to nurse a sick Iraq at the expense of Kurdish nationalism?

Not so long ago, the Kurds would have been overjoyed to see the Kurdistan flag hoisted on a building in Iraq, let alone see it proudly flap in the wind as it overhangs the prestigious Ritz Carlton hotel in Washington, D.C., to commemorate the visit of the head of a state.

The point is simple. The Kurds have come a long way, establishing themselves as a strong strategic power in the Middle East, influential components of the new revolution sweeping the Middle East and major actors in the new Iraq.

The Kurds have to be taken seriously as a major force with their demands and sentiments cajoled by global powers. Therefore, it is no surprise of the importance that the U.S. places on the alliance and partnership with the Kurds that resulted in the recent visit to the White House by Kurdistan President Massaud Barzani.

Barzani met U.S. President Barrack Obama, U.S. Vice President John Biden as well as a number of senior political figures in Washington.

Obama urged Barzani to re-engage with Baghdad amid growing tensions, a serious political crisis in Iraq and a collapse in the current power-sharing agreement.

The U.S. has long leaned on the Kurds in implementing their vision of the new Iraq and for their influential part in keeping Iraq together. The new Iraq was inaugurated including the constitution, pluralistic and democratic principles under the auspices of the U.S. government.

The U.S. formally withdrew at the end of 2011, and yet the new Iraq they left behind is as troublesome as the old Iraq they inherited.

While every Iraqi misfortune cannot be directly attributed to the U.S., after all the underlying Iraqi issues are historic and owed to its artificial inception, the U.S. must take firm accountability in guiding the new Iraq and appeasing all sides or bearing the consequences of failed policies and as such the collapse of the Iraqi state.

Kurdish weariness of Baghdad

Interfactional relations have hardly been great right across Iraq over the past several years, owed to deep mistrust, sectarian splits and stark political differences. However, relations between Kurdistan and Baghdad have been tentative to say the least, and the divide has been deepening year after year.

While Kurdistan has developed at pace with an economic boom and a new lease of life, Baghdad has been dragging it down. It appears that Baghdad policies are enacted to contain the Kurds and slow down their rapid rise and ensure that they don’t escape from the clutches of Baghdad. Without the bolt and chain that is Baghdad, Kurdistan would have developed at an even faster pace.

After the recent meeting between Barzani and Obama, the U.S. once again reaffirmed its support for a democratic and federalist Iraq. “The United States is committed to our close and historic relationship with Kurdistan and the Kurdish people, in the context of our strategic partnership with a federal, democratic and unified Iraq,” read a statement.

But how long can the Kurds continue to believe in this vision of the new Iraq, which is clearly miles away from reality?

Political power has been consolidated in the hands of Nouri al-Maliki, there is a great sectarian and political imbalance in the security forces, the power-sharing agreement has all but failed, constitution articles continue to be overlooked, and many key laws needed to bridge the national divide such a Hydrocarbon Law continue to gather dust on the political shelf; the list goes on.

The U.S. continues to pressure the Kurds to spearhead Iraqi reconciliation and re-engage with Baghdad, while over the past several years the Kurds have clearly been the main mediating party in resolving numerous disputes in Baghdad as well as helping pull Iraq back from the brink of all-out civil war.

Barzani’s statement at his annual Newroz address and the reaffirmation of those views at a speech he gave in Washington (at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy) must be taken with utmost seriousness. At the same time the Kurdish leadership must make clear to their U.S., Iraqi and international allies that their threats are not in vain.

Barzani reiterated that Iraq is facing a serious crisis and that all the current signs point to a one-man rule, referring to Maliki’s running as prime minister whilst simultaneously holding positions of the commander in chief of the armed forces, the minister of defense, the minister of the interior and the chief of intelligence.

Kurdish plan B

As the divide between Baghdad and Erbil grows, it simultaneously hastens the inevitable declaration of independence by Kurdistan.

Barzani pledged to continue to work toward a solution within the terms of the Iraqi constitution, but once again warned that should efforts to find concord fail that he will go back to the Kurdish people for their decision, in reference to a referendum on independence.

How can the U.S. or any international power deny the legitimate right of the Kurdish nation to self-determination and statehood, especially when the Kurds have done more than their fair share of protecting and promoting a unified Iraq?

The Kurdistan Regional Government and the remit of the Kurdish leaders are to serve the Kurdish people and not Baghdad. Therefore, when Baghdad renegs on the key points of the Erbil agreement, continues policies at the detriment of Kurdish growth, does not implement constitutional articles or continues to lean toward a recentralisation of power and dictatorial tendencies, how can Erbil remain idle?

The heated rhetoric between Baghdad and Erbil over outstanding oil export payments and the subsequent halting of Kurdish oil exports, over Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi who the Kurds housed before he fled to Qatar, over KRG oil contracts with Exxon Mobil and other companies, and over disputed territories is all proof that Iraq is already fractured in all but name and that reconciliation efforts with Baghdad will prove to be a futile exercise.

US jockeying

The U.S. may have officially withdrawn forces from Iraq, but their interests and stakes in the new Iraq are as great as ever. U.S. diplomats are as productive as ever in Iraq with top U.S. officials continuing to frantically jockey between factions. After billions of dollars of expenditure, thousands of lost lives and several years of efforts to promote unity and democracy in Iraq, the U.S. can hardly afford just to walk away.

The U.S. have been aiming to promote national reconciliation in Iraq for over nine years, but the Iraqi actors have continued to blight such efforts and failed to meet most of the U.S. benchmarks. It is unsurprising in the current political climate that the Iraqi government indefinitely postponed a national reconciliation meeting that was scheduled for this week.

The Kurds are no longer pawns of foreign powers on the Iraqi or Middle Eastern chessboard. The U.S. may want a certain outcome from Iraq or have a certain vision, but what if this never comes? Do the Kurds sit idle and indefinitely nurse a sick Iraq?

This is the same U.S. that fed the Kurds to the wolves to serve their own strategic purposes in the past. The Kurds can over-rely on Washington at their own peril. While the Kurds today have more friends than the mountains that were once the symbolic saying, it is still surrounded by enemies and parties that will do all they can to check Kurdish national advancement.

Moving forward without fear

When the Kurds had little more than fierce pride and passion and basic weapons against chemical weapons and some of the most powerful armies in the world, they still didn’t succumb to fear or subjugation in spite of all the odds.

Why then should the Kurds of today, with immense oil wealth, security forces, strategic standing, a booming economy and great regional influence, be fearful of upsetting or annoying the U.S. or other such powers when their own interests are at risk?

The Kurds chose to be part of a unified Iraq under a federalist banner that was enshrined by the constitution. They could have taken Kirkuk and other disputed territories by force and gone their own way, but with U.S., Turkish and international pressure and their endeavor for democratic solutions, they opted for a different route.

At the same time, the U.S., Turkey and some other global powers continue to warn Kurds not to proclaim independence. Baghdad and such powers cannot have it both ways, deprive the Kurds of legally enshrined articles and principles in the new Iraq and at the same time expect the Kurds to succumb to what best suits other powers.

In reality, the Kurds can declare independence. And in spite of threats and warnings from the likes of Turkey, there is nothing they can do to delay or prevent this eventuality.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

Kurds – showing a tongue with which to talk, but teeth with which to bite

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The Syrian Kurds are in many ways the forgotten kindred of the Kurdish landscape that have suddenly found themselves at a centre of increasing regional and international focus. Indeed, while Kurdistan was forcibly partitioned in the selfish interest of the imperial powers at the time, the Kurdish national identity became increasingly more localised with the respective struggles following suit.

It has become a common future to be labelled as an Iraqi Kurd, Turkish Kurd, Syrian Kurd or Iranian Kurd, which in itself is rubbing salt into the wounds of the Kurds. They were segregated against their will and such labelling based on their new found minority status, may seem as a logical way to distinguish the new Kurdish segments, but it simply aided the assimilation drive of the respective occupying forces.

At a crucial and sensitive juncture of the Kurdistan national renaissance, the Kurds have a unique opportunity to rewrite the wrongs of history. While the borders cannot be redrawn overnight, the mere conception of the Kurds as a disparate force whose influence is limited to their respective state can be changed.

Whether based in Syria, Turkey, Iraq or Iran, a Kurd will always be a Kurd and successive Kurdish policies should reflect a coming together of interests and an alliance of different components for the benefit of greater Kurdish nationalism. The old Kurdish saying that Kurds have no friends but the mountains may have spoken true in yesteryears, but in the new dawn the Kurds have each other.

Millions of Kurds under Baghdad rule

Although the Kurdistan Region finds itself in an enviable position of becoming a prosperous, strategic, political and economic hub, it is at the end of the day only the boundaries of the Kurdistan that has been loosely defined by the Iraqi constitution.

Remarkably, over 40% of the Kurdistan ethnic border lies outside of the Region that form part of the so-called disputed territories. Yet constitutional articles that govern how the status of these territories is to be resolved has been strategically stalled by Baghdad in order to restrain the rapid advancement of the Kurds.

Four years after the deadline for the implementation of article 140, these Kurds still find themselves no closer to an official return to the Kurdistan Region and to compound matters are at the mercy of insurgents intent on derailing Kurdish grip on these areas.

While most Kurds in the Kurdistan Region enjoy relative stability and welfare, the Kurds outside of the region do not enjoy such privileges. Deterioration in the security of Iraq or any political vacuums in Baghdad such as that experienced today ensures they get caught up in the whirlwind of violence and fear.

The Kurdish and Iraqi security forces have come close to outright fighting on a number of occasions in the disputed areas and Baghdad has frequently opposed the presence of Peshmerga forces in the disputed territories, but at some point the Kurds have to say enough is enough.

The recent spate of bombings across Kirkuk, Nineveh, Salahaddin and especially Diyala provinces continues to highlight the dangers that Kurds endure in the face of hard-line groups and Arab nationalists.

Kurdish complaints at the lack of protection from Baghdad are not new and have regularly called on the KRG to intercede on their behalf.

Baghdad cannot have it both ways – stalling the resolution of disputed territories yet not affording the Kurds the protection they are entitled to under their roof.

It is time for the KRG to intervene more directly in such hotspots and safeguard the wellbeing of the Kurdish citizens. Sitting idle or waiting for the goodwill of Baghdad to take pace will only end in disappointment.

More importantly, the Kurds have to grab the bull by the horns as far as the issue of disputed territories are concerned and set Baghdad key deadlines and milestones, whereby if they fail to deliver then the Kurds will take matters into their own hands.

Kurds too often have been fearful of not upsetting their neighbours with respective Kurdish headaches or straining ties with Baghdad. However, Kurds have done as much as anyone to preserve stability and unity in Iraq and indeed ensure dialogue takes precedence over violence in Turkey. The Kurds should not be any less weary than other nation to enjoy their legal rights and make their own demands and also enact counter measures as they see fit to defend their nationality and region.

This is not to say that productive relations with neighbours is not of paramount importance as this is key for the economic growth of Kurdistan and overall political stability, however it means that the Kurds have to be taken as an important strategic power in their own right and as equal partners at the regional table. To show that the Kurds have a tongue by which they engage dialogue but also teeth by which they can bite.

Plight of Syrian Kurds

Under the increasing limelight are the Syrian Kurds who in many ways are stuck between an Assad regime that has subjected them to systemic repression and Arab opposition groups they distrust.

While neighbouring Sunni countries have flocked to stand up for their brethren that are subject to increasing brutality amidst a fierce government reprisal, the Kurds in Syria have suffered for decades with much of the world turning a blind eye.

When Arabs defend their brethren, the Kurdistan Region should be ready to defend their own. Syrian Kurds look to the Kurds in Iraq as big brothers and it is the duty of Kurdistan region to embrace them with open arms.

As such the awarding of refugee status to 30 Syrian Kurdish soldiers who had defected is a welcome step. The Kurdistan Region should become the natural hub where Syrian Kurds can use to oppose the Assad regime and ensure a new democratic and federalist dawn in Syria ensues.

Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 to protect its Turkish inhabitants and has played a frequent hand in ensuring Turkmen interests are preserved in Iraq, with many other regional examples that follow suit. The Kurds cannot stay idle at a unique historical opportunity to unite all of Kurdistan in politics, strategy and spirit.

Federalism as a step to unity

The minimum demand of the Kurds in Syria should be federalism. While the Kurds have an undeniable right to self-determination that has been harshly and selfishly deprived, the greatest formula for the overall unity of Kurdistan at the present time is the establishment of federal region across all countries where they find themselves a significant minority.

A future federal state of Kurdistan in Syria will undoubtedly have a strong alliance with Kurdistan Region which will benefit the entire region in promoting long-term stability.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Peyamner, Various Misc.

End game for Assad; just the beginning for Kurds

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Fast approaching a year of uprising and turmoil, the struggle against Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria is now by far the longest of all in the Arab Spring. The opposition movement in Syria clearly lacked the same national and military clout as in Egypt and particularly Libya, with an opposition that is still relatively localized and maturing as a force. But ultimately it is theindecisiveness and inconsistencies of regional and global powers that has been its Achilles’ heel.

On a regional front, the Syrian issue is complicated by a group of countries that continue to staunchly support Bashar al-Assad’s crumbling regime.

Syria is in many ways different to the countries that have succumbed to the tides of the Arab revolution. Syria finds itself at the heart of the Middle East and its numerous hotspots. It is a fulcrum for activities and tensions in Israel, Lebanon and Palestine, a proxy for Iran’s regional ambitions and power mongering, and with an inadvertent hand in the PKK conflict.

This is underpinned by the fact that Syria is a Sunni majority ruled by an Alawite minority. Such are the high stakes in Syria that almost no country in the region has remained silent one way or another as each aims to preserve their sectarian, economic or strategic interests. The predominantly Sunni-based Arab League has been at the forefront of rhetoric against Assad and the galvanization of the resistance in Syria.

Where now for the struggle?

After 11 months of a humanitarian crisis and protests in Syria, those who oppose Assad need to match words with more determined actions. A common UN Security Council resolution is looking as unlikely as ever, and sooner or later, the powers that are in favor of strong action must decide their next move.

Rhetoric and sanctions only have a limited affect, and regionalpowers cannot remain content on indirect actions indefinitely. The growing humanitarian crisis as Assad continues to pound rebel cities is something that even Russia and China, who staunchly oppose military intervention, cannot ignore.

Assad’s regime has reached a point of no return, and in spite of empty gestures such as the upcoming referendum on a new constitution, the Syrian opposition and regional countries opposed to Assad have come too far in the conflict to let the uprising subside and allow Assad to continue in power.

At the current time, the anti-government forces lack the firepower or territorial advantages that Libyan rebels were able to enjoy. It is commonly overlooked that even though the Libyan opposition had far greater strength than the one in Syria today, only an Allied intervention prevented a mass slaughter in Benghazi as the government forces blew the gates down.

Even then, only weeks of fierce bombardment of Gaddafi forces finally broke the back of the government.

The probable way forward in Syria is now a full blown civil war. Foreign military intervention endorsed by a UN resolution may not happen, but nor will a passive observation of Syria. As the Arab League and supporters of the Syrian uprising continue to apply pressure at the UN, the Arab forces in the region may well find themselves in a position of having to directly thwart Assad in Syria. They may well arrive under the pretext of a peace-keeping force, but their end game is obvious. Some countries are already involved in supplying of arms to rebel forces, and in the short term this will increase.

A “human corridor” that is being seriously discussed as a compromise at the UN may have a two-fold benefit. It provides relieffor the besieged population and also affords breathing space for the rebels,allowing them to regroup and consolidate power.

An intensification of the military conflict threatens to deepen the regional divide, as Iraq, Iran and even Russia may up their support in preserving Assad’s regime.

The Kurdish card in Syria

If the Arabs in Syria thought they had it bad, one must spare a thought for the much repressed Kurdish population. Arabs may have lacked some rights and privileges, but in the case of thousands of Kurds there were literally no rights and condemnation to a state of non-existence.

The Kurdish plight under the hands of Damascus has been largely ignored over the years while Arab nationalism assumed its course. Now regional countries flock to protect a besieged population in Syria under humanitarian grounds.

Ironically, the Kurds have largely taken a backroom role in the conflict owed to a deep mistrust of the Arab opposition groups and Turkey’s long-term plans for Syria. Damascus has attempted to manipulate Arab fears of Kurdish separatism and at the same time Kurdish fears of Arab nationalism.

Turkey has been at the forefront of regional attempts to isolate and punish the Syrian regime while Assad has in return increased support of the PKK to preserve his regional leverage.

The Kurdish opposition groups themselves are divided between various loyalties, and without a united front they may well miss the revolutionary tide and with it an opportunity to play a strong part in the reshaping of Syria.

In this regard, the Kurdistan Regional Government needs to play a strong part in uniting and supporting the Kurdish groups in Syria while at the same time becoming a significant actor in the overall regional quest to oust Assad.

Baghdad may support Syria, but Kurdistan is no Iraq. The Kurdistan Region cannot stay idle to any regional upheaval, and with its growing power in the greater region it can successfully play a strong, strategic role in the new Middle East.

Gone are the days when the Kurds were bystanders as other powers decided their destiny. As one of the largest ethnic groups in the Middle East, the Kurds can be at the forefront of the new destiny of the Middle East.

As for Syrian Kurds numbering over 2 million people, they are hardly a small pawn on the post-Assad negotiating table. They must be unequivocal in their demand for federalism and equal rights or threaten to go their own way. Kurds must no longer accept second best, due to threat of regional powers working to dilute Kurdish nationalism.

It would be most ironic if Arab powers and Turkey liberated Syria, and then launched a crackdown on Kurdish nationalism in a new Syria only because Kurds wanted to enjoy their legal entitlement to autonomy.

The leaders of Kurdistan must work side by side to guide the Syrian Kurds. The majority of Syrian Kurds look to the Kurdistan Region as a big brother and their guardians.

The Kurdish opposition conference in Erbil last month was a largely welcome step. It displayed national solidarity and demonstrated that Kurds are no longer oblivious to cross-border struggles of their brothers. Such manoeuvres must intensify for the good of all Kurdistan. The Kurds may have been divided against their will by force, but no one can prevent unity in heart and spirit.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Peyamner, Various Misc.

Kurdistan first, all else second

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While it was never officially announced until recently, it was always widely acknowledged that KDP Vice President Nechirvan Barzani would take over from incumbent Barham Salih and head the next cabinet as Prime Minister. Not only does Barzani’s highly anticipated return mark the end of a 2-year political chapter but it also comes at the beginning of a highly crucial year for Kurdistan.

In many ways, Salih had a tough two years in office. Almost as soon as he was appointed, he was severely disadvantaged with the dilution of PUK power and the emergence of Gorran as a major rival in traditional PUK strongholds This meant that while the power-sharing agreement between the KDP and PUK in theory remained evenly split, it was anything but that in reality and it effectively ensured there was little chance of the PUK securing the full four-year term at the helm.

After the last elections, KDP took centre stage in the Kurdish political arena and was clearly the most influential component of government. With the imminent return of Barzani, hope and expectations have already been greatly shifted. This is based on Barzani’s positive track record in his last term in office but also at a crucial juncture for Kurdistan, the expectation of the Kurdish people are at an all-time high. His appointment also serves to bolster the strength of government. After all he will be head of cabinet and representing the strongest political party in Kurdistan.

Barzani’s challenges are two pronged. On the one hand, appeasing Kurdish expectations at home and secondly, ensuring Kurdistan makes the strongest possible benefit in the greater region and with Baghdad.

Challenges within Kurdistan

2011 was a turbulent year for the Kurdistan Region but one that despite a number of drawbacks could propel Kurdistan to greater heights. As witnessed with the demonstrations last year and general public sentiments, the Kurdish people are growing frustrated and impatient whilst some historic Kurdish handicaps become resolved.

Corruption is still a persistent thorn in the side of Kurdish politics, as is government hegemony over the economy and employment with lack of a thriving private sector, bureaucracy and public services that are in need of investment and improvement.

The Gorran Movement was in many ways a by-product of Kurdish emotion and the advent of real opposition in Kurdish government only added to the credibility and standing of Kurdish democracy. Although there are signs that Gorran is too evolving to become a more affective component of the political arena, at times it has shown political immaturity at achieving its goals.

Kurdish people generally acknowledge that Kurdistan has made remarkable progress in a short period of time, but this is no excuse for politicians to rest on their laurels and take their vote for granted.

The only reason any politician or political party is in power is because they have been given a mandate by the people. As long as the idea of serving the national interests comes first, Kurdistan can only continue to grow and evolve.

However, it’s widely accepted by all sides that Kurdistan is in need of reform on a number of levels and without this Kurdistan will only be dragged into the future as opposed to racing at full speed.

On the topic of serving the people, comes accountability and transparency. The politicians must live and breathe around the very people they have been appointed to serve. They must hear the people on the ground and actively heed public sentiment. How can politicians serve Kurdistan if there are simply out of touch with the people and the situation on the ground and enjoying a life that must ordinary Kurds can only dream of?

Diversify the political powerbase is one significant prelude to ensuring that future voting outcomes cannot be taking for granted. This means that unless political parties raise the bar and deliver even higher, the people may place their votes elsewhere (as long as they deem that there worthwhile and credible alternatives to place their vote). In this regard, it would be beneficial for Kurdistan to ensure that the PUK and KDP no long server on a single list. Having more parties with political clout will allow for greater compromise amongst parties and facilitate a broader more inclusive government.

The shape of the next cabinet

Barzani may not have officially assumed his post but has already got to work and marked his intention to other political players by assuring that “our door is always open.” One of his key goals was to build general consensus and understanding with all political parties. Barzani declared, “We will be happy to have a broad-based government for the next cabinet… it is the duty of all of us to try and work to serve this country and its people”

So far the fruit of Barzani’s endeavours have been productive but there is no certainty that the new cabinet will necessarily be all inclusive. Most opposition parties have stated their willingness to work with Barzani and that could only be good news for Kurdistan but under specific conditions, which will signify the new cabinet’s appetite for change and appeasing opposition groups.

Gorran’s final take on joining the new cabinet will likely depend on their sense of reassurance around the reform packages that they have previously agreed with the government.

However, an all-inclusive cabinet is not the be all and end all for Kurdish politics. You don’t have to be on the same cabinet to be on the same page.

Gorran can serve as an affective opposition and play its key role of ensuring the evolution and reform of Kurdistan without formally been a part of the cabinet.

What matters is a national consensus amongst all parties and an eagerness to set aside their differences for the sake of Kurdistan. All political parties have the responsibility to answer to the people that have voted them in power and deep personal or ideological rifts must be set aside.

Without a common basis amongst the ruling parties and opposition, it is almost certain that months and years will tick away without any real progress. It is one thing to agree on reform and make positive intentions and it’s another to deliver the reform package in a timely, measurable and transparent manner.

The regional view

Reform and political evolvement will ultimately benefit the people, improve standards of living and fulfil the growing expectations of the people. However, it will also put Kurdistan on a much stronger footing in the greater region and internationally.

Kurdistan is at a highly sensitive point and one that one will determine how Kurdistan will be shaped in years to come.

It is still part of a largely fragmented Iraq that is underpinned by deep animosity. It is still part of the same Iraq that still has many unresolved disputes with Kurdistan and on the brink of a new civil war.

The Kurds have played the patient waiting game on issues such as disputed territories and national hydrocarbon law, while Baghdad has shown little enthusiasm to implement constitutional articles that ultimately serve to enhance the status of Kurdistan.

In the greater region, Kurdistan is becoming ever engulfed in power tussles between neighbours in a fast changing strategic picture. Kurds in Syria, Turkey and to a lesser extent Iran are at the forefront of changing dynamics in the Middle East.

Kurds in these parts of Kurdistan are also at sensitive crossroads and ubiquitously look to the Kurdistan Region as a big brother.

This means firstly, that Kurdish political parties must work as closely and as united as ever no matter their differences in solidifying and protecting Kurdish interests and secondly, that Kurdish leaders must make delicate and difficult decisions to ensure they safeguard Kurdish interests outside of the Kurdistan Region.

As with the example of Baghdad, the Kurds should not feel compelled to constantly resolve bitter feuds in Baghdad and become dragged into the middle of frequent sectarian and political clashes, whilst much of their demands have been sidelined.

The Kurdish quest should be about strengthening Kurdistan and not Baghdad. The basis for Kurdish support in Iraq and beyond should not be unconditional, but come at an advantage to Kurdistan.

Ankara and Baghdad need Kurdistan more than ever, and after historically getting the raw end of the deal from both these sides, it’s about time the Kurds drove a hard bargain.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

Kurds caught in the middle as tensions in Iraq are stoked by regional jockeying

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With the political crisis in Iraq already at a critical juncture, domestic and regional events this week served to intensify tensions.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki formally suspended a number of ministers from the predominantly Sunni-based al-Iraqiya list after weeks of boycotts. As internal parties continued frantic jockeying to soothe friction and find a way forward, fierce rhetoric from rival factions only further highlighted the prevalent fractured landscape and a strong sense of animosity.

Over the past weeks, with realization of the great perils that the current sectarian stand-off threatens to unearth, regional neighbours particularly Turkey have been getting overly anxious.

The reality of Iraq”s diverse socio-ethnic mosaic and its fractured foundations is hardly new, the threats and problems that exist today have not developed overnight and have existed for decades were they only become more magnified after 2003.

However, the ever evolving Middle Eastern struggle for influence and supremacy has left the likes of Turkey on the edge. Turkey realizes that with the highly-volatile and sensitive Middle Eastern climate, it can either wait on the side and become consumed by the end products that ensue or actively try and influence the current tides for its ultimate benefit.

Iraq has often been a playground for regional powers and the current predicament is only a by-product of this. The current standoff that began with the arrest warrant of Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi and the resulting acrimonious fallout has as much of a regional footing as a local one.

The Arab Spring which is still ongoing in Syria has set a new benchmark in the Middle East and along with it a lot of political, sectarian and strategic wavering.

Add the US withdrawal in Iraq, Turkey”s frosty relations with Israel and its continuing struggle with the PKK, a new round of sanctions to punish Iran”s growing nuclear clout, Iran”s increasing faceoff with the Sunni Arab Gulf states and one can see that the Middle East is a deep interconnected web of ties and proxy battles.

Turkey has acknowledged and highlighted the dangers of Iraqi fragmentation before any other side due to sensitivities with the preservation of their own borders, but they have become more vociferous in recent weeks amidst what they deem as a Shiite grasp of power aided by an increasingly isolated Iranian regime. Tehran”s relations with Ankara have certainly cooled and Iran has used its immense leverage on Iraq and Syria to show that it still has plenty of strings to pull.

Iraq”s continuous solidarity with Syria is a byproduct of Iranian influence and is a stark contrast to the Turkish stance on Bashar al-Assad”s waning regime.

Tensions between Baghdad and Ankara were deepened when the Turkish Foreign Ministry summoned Iraq”s ambassador to Turkey, Abdulemir Kamil Abi-Tabikh, to its headquarters in Ankara to express their anger at al-Maliki growing hard-line statements and criticism towards Turkey. This was just a day after Baghdad had done the same to show their displeasure at what they saw as Turkish interference.

The attacks on the Turkish embassy in Baghdad are only likely to stoke sentiments further.

The Kurds are not a party to the sectarian battle in Iraq but nevertheless become ubiquitously sucked into the standoff. The Kurds were often looked at by Turkey as an instigator of a future breakup but Turkey has to soon come to terms that an Iraqi split will not be on a part of the Kurds and plan for the eventuality that sooner or later that they will need to embrace an independent Kurdistan.

Turkey is already relying heavily on the Kurds to maintain equilibrium and leverage in Iraq. The shift towards sectarianism by Baghdad is evident in the eyes of Ankara who perceive the dilution of Sunni power in parliament and controversy around al-Hashemi as testimony to this view.

While Turkey has warned that current political antics risk the break-up of Iraq, ironically al-Maliki has in turn warned that “Turkey is playing a role that might bring disaster and civil war to the region and will suffer because it has different sects and ethnicities.”

No doubt the growing prominence of the Kurds in Iraq and ongoing disgruntled noises of millions of Kurds in south eastern Turkey is keeping Turkey restless at night. Not to mention that Turkey may end up a passive player in the shape of proceedings in spite of all its efforts as changes unravel around it.

As we have seen with the Arab Spring, it doesn”t take much to create a political avalanche that can bring more change in mere weeks than decades prior.

Turkish warnings over the current state of regional meddling in Iraq may speak true but are certainly contradictory. The same regional influence that they fear that Iraqi blocs will fall under has been raging for over 8 years and Turkey has been a key component of this.

Although, many had hoped that al-Hashemi would be giving a fair trial with a legal rather than a political underpinning and that the tensions could be cooled by an all-inclusive national conference, the suspension of al-Iraqiya MP”s placed further cloud on the prospects of near-term compromise and concord.

Al-Iraqiya leader, Ayad Allawi warned this week that Iraq needs a new prime minister or new elections to prevent the country from falling apart. Both these demands may not come anytime soon. Al-Maliki still enjoys fair amount of support in Baghdad and crucially still has Kurdish backing.

The key task for the Kurdistan leadership is play their cards wisely but also do what is the interests of Kurdistan and not simply aid political jockeying in Baghdad. The Kurds could well pull the rug under the feet of al-Maliki and after this week”s turn of events, Ankara will be siding and pressurizing the Kurds closely to contain al-Maliki.

As the KDP resumes the premiership with the imminent return of Nechirvan Barzani to spearhead the next Kurdistan government, the Kurdistan Region finds itself at a crucial but highly delicate juncture. What dice the Kurds roll and what cards they play could echo for many more years. As Kurds realized to their detriment for decades after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, missing historical opportunities can set-back a nation many more years.

If their yearly ploys to glue Iraq together bear only counterproductive fruit for the Kurdish people, then the serious question must be asked of the Kurdish leadership. If Iraq continuously deploys policies that are counter to the principles of voluntary union and national harmony, then the Kurds must formally declare their independence.

The situation in Iraq after 8 years of fierce pushing, hand holding and direct support from Washington didn”t bring much joy, and it is unlikely that the current situation in Iraq can be magically transformed.

Deep rooted problems need deep rooted solutions. The simple reality is that as a majority and with significant backing of Tehran, the Shiites are not about to relinquish power in Baghdad anytime soon. The Sunni will continue to feel marginalized unless they can win some form of autonomy or real decision making posts in Baghdad which as witnessed under the State of Law coalition, will not be easily ceded.

As part of the current coalition underpinned by the Erbil agreement, al-Iraqiya was to be afforded executive decision making posts which never materialized. Al-Iraqiya discontent was already at tipping point long before the al-Hashemi debacle.

It is the political environment that often makes a leader and thus even if al-Maliki was replaced, it is not certain that significant outcomes can be achieved. Furthermore, new elections will only result in another de-facto national census, with no clear winner due to the factional split and thus the same arduous process of coalition building.

The regional turmoil itself is only just brewing. If Iran carries out its threat to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz then it places regional governments into a tougher corner. Iraq itself could find itself in a precarious position against its allies, as the closing of the Gulf passage would cripple the Iraqi economy. Meanwhile, Turkey is unlikely to heed al-Maliki”s warnings not to interfere when they have so much at stake.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

The regional fear of the disintegration of Iraq is out-dated, it has already happened.

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The fear of the disintegration of Iraq is hardly breaking news. A persistent theme of the past 9 or so years of the new Iraq has been how to preserve unity and bring about true national reconciliation amongst a climate of deep mistrust.

Iraq in its transition to democracy may have achieved historical junctures but it has often stumbled to its milestones as opposed to a painless arrival at its new dawn.

More often than not, the major achievements in Iraq were underscored by heavy US pressure and much political jockeying and drama in Baghdad. As successive crisis”s have brewed, a semblance of calm were somewhat reinstated in the short-term by last minute dealings but too often at the expense of any long-term benefits. A policy of brushing key issues under the political rug always ran the risk of haunting the Iraqi political arena at some stage and just days after the US symbolic withdrawal from Iraq, another explosive crisis reared its ugly head in Iraq.

If the issues are been assessed at the surface then one can argue that current turmoil was instigated by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki”s issuance of an arrest warrant against Iraq”s Sunni Vice-President, Tariq al-Hashemi and the subsequent ploy to sideline Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlak from power. However, the water has been boiling on the sieve for several months and for one reason or another, it wouldn”t have taken much to tip sentiments over the edge.

Just take the current brittle coalition that was remarkably concluded after 11 months and set an unwanted world record. That in itself sums up all that is needed to explain the current upheaval and instability.

Even though Iyad Allawi”s predominantly Sunni-based al-Iraqiya group were the ultimate victors at the polls, they were threatened with been marginalised by al-Maliki”s Shiite Coalition. Months of wrangling ensured agreement on power-sharing but more through gritted teeth than true brotherly reconciliation.

Once al-Iraqiya didn”t get the empowered it demanded and real decision making authority, it was always a question of time before the political landscape would be rocked once more. Almost 2 years since the national elections, a number of key positions remain unfulfilled and still in the hands of al-Maliki in what was supposedly a temporary basis.

Turkish anxiety has dramatically increased by unfolding events, leading Ankara to go back and forth between Baghdad and Washington in recent weeks and warning about the dangers of an Iraqi disintegration. Although Turkey may have chosen to ignore reality for a while, the writing has been on the Iraqi wall for decades and particularly these past 9 years.

There is no danger of Iraqi fragmentation. It is already fragmented and now it”s only question of just how far the disintegration will go and regional countries must accept that reality sooner or later. Democracy has been fraught with difficulty in Iraq with voting along heavy sectarian and ethnic lines. Voting has been almost akin to a de facto national census than a true national voice gathering exercise.

While Turkey and neighbouring countries seemingly worked to promote national harmony and reconciliation in Iraq, ironically they have been responsible for the entrenchment of camps in Iraq.

Successive Shiite governments have swayed heavily towards Tehran, whilst Sunni groups, essentially marginalised from power from their heyday under Saddam Hussein, have worked to force a hand at the political table through the threat of insurgency or through jockeying in the political chambers. Turkmen have used the big brother threat, calling on the support of Turkey to ensure their cards on the table are not ignored, while for the Kurds it has been a case of not letting the rest of Iraq drag the prosperous Kurdistan Region down with them and at the same time building strategic ties to boost their autonomous status and growing economic clout.

How regional sectarian influence continues to grip Iraq can be seen with al-Maliki”s persistent support of the much maligned and under fire Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

This week al-Iraqiya kept up their boycott of Iraq”s parliament and cabinet accusing al-Maliki of monopolising power and not abiding by the terms that led to the eventual breakthrough of the current coalition.

Accusations of the centralising of power by al-Maliki is hardly new, it was a frequent criticism throughout the last election term.

With the importance of upholding calm and dialogue seemingly at large, a national conference has been proposed that should be held sometime this month. A national conference may save the day in the short-term as did the Erbil agreement but true concord may prove elusive once more.

No amount of political manoeuvring at the end of the day can paper over deep mistrust and animosity. Even if national elections were held early, the end game would be the same. There is no guarantee that Iraq would not end up at the same juncture after new elections are held whilst the key ingredients that continuously poison the political atmosphere remain.

As for now, it is unlikely that al-Maliki will relinquish his firm grip on power. While al-Maliki has been under intense domestic and regional spotlight, he may escape this current escapade largely unscathed. Al-Iraqiya have used the threat of boycott but with so many Sunni”s in their ranks badly scarred from the boycott campaigns of the previous campaigns, it is unclear just how far the loyalty of their MPs stretch.

The current political tension may have hurt al-Iraqiya further with 11 politicians already revoking their ties to the alliance. Al-Iraqiya MPs are mindful that further boycotts or spotlight may see more positions of power been relinquished to the powerful Shiite alliance.

The biggest danger is a coalition without al-Iraqiya altogether where al-Maliki musters support from Kurds and al-Iraqiya dissidents, a scenario that would certainly place sectarian tensions into overdrive. The recent spate of initiatives towards autonomy by predominantly Sunni provinces is an indicator of growing Sunni fear that preservation of local power aside, the may be confound to a running battle to avoid been sidelined in Baghdad.

The Kurds, who have attempted to remain neutral, once again find themselves with all the aces. Only with Kurdish support could al-Iraqiya spearhead a new government and only with Kurdish support could al-Maliki be ousted from government.

Logic would dictate that after many failed promises by al-Maliki towards the Kurds, including the lack of implementation of the vast majority of conditions that he signed up to as a prelude to Kurdish support, the Kurds would side with al-Iraqiya. However, the new crisis and the key Kurdish role of calming tensions, gives the opportunity for the Kurds to preserve al-Maliki”s seat and the current coalition, but no doubt with much sterner warnings and conditions for the Shiite Alliance and al-Maliki.

The fact remains that all too often al-Maliki has boldly reneged on agreements with Kurds and has simply gotten away with it, even as the Kurds have saved al-Maliki”s political skin on more than occasion. The issue of disputed territories remains as open and pertinent as ever, Baghdad remains at loggerheads with the Kurds on oil sharing and Baghdad has been hardly provided a positive endorsement of growing Kurdish strategic clout and prosperity. It is time for the Kurds to use their aces wisely.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

U.S.withdrawal: End or beginning of Iraq?

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As the last convoy of US troops trickled over the desertous southern-Iraqi border, the move was met with contrasting emotions, much like the overall US experience little shy of 9 years.

For many in Iraq, the image of seeing their “occupiers” leave became a long-time nationalist dream. Fast forward 9 years, 4500 lost lives and an expenditure fast approaching trillion dollar that has crippled the US foreign policy image and dented the US economy, the US were arguably as keen to leave as they were to enter.

Many placed direct blame on much of the unfolding crisis over the years in Iraq on America but as the future will prove the US is not responsible for every Iraqi misfortune and that perhaps America did well to stave off so many obstacles.

The downfall of Saddam and subsequent invasion of Iraq only opened a hornets nest, the nest was placated many decades before with the artificial creation of Iraq. The lid was simply held firm by the iron grip of Saddam and once opened, the Americans struggled relentlessly to keep grip whilst under immense international spotlight.

It is time for the Iraqi political actors to take accountability and responsibility for the current situation in Iraq. Iraq has had a sovereign government for many years, has now held two national elections, implemented a national constitution and has a large security force at its disposal that has been in practical control of the streets long before the US withdrawal.

History will prove that America never really got the credit it deserved. It made huge sacrifices whilst Iraqi politicians have constantly failed to deliver. It pulled Iraq from the brink of all-out sectarian war in 2007 with the promise of thousands of more troops as part of the surge strategy but the Iraqi leaders again failed to keep their promises and their end of the bargain.

It is by no means to say that the US adventure in Iraq should be marked as a shining glory. The two Washington administrations, particularly that of George W. Bush, will be the first to admit that Iraq was an achilles heel and in the case of Bush the hammer blow to the credibility of the his tenure. In hindsight, the US is more than likely to have done things differently and will have a bitter taste in their mouths as some events backfired.

However, as the old saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you cannot make it drink. Iraq has had many historical milestones and achievements but has successfully failed to capitalise on any positive motions created.

The bottom line is that deep sectarianism, a clear ethnic divide and above all profound historical mistrust and animosity have severely handicapped any chance of national reconciliation and genuine progression in Iraq.

As soon as the US forces formally withdrew, fierce debate ensued about the legacy that they left behind. One thing for sure is that the positive picture of the current climate in Iraq that the US was hoping to promote did not take long to shatter.

A day later, Iraq become embroiled in a new sectarian and political crisis as an arrest warrant was issued for Iraq”s Sunni Vice-President, Tariq al-Hashemi and a number of other Sunni figures, on terror related charges. This is in addition to controversy around Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlak whose criticism of Maliki”s dictatorial tendencies left him clinging on to his position as Maliki sought a vote of no confidence against him.

People have warned about the fragility of the current coalition, however, the coalition has been anything but stable and harmonious since its much delayed inception. Over a year later and key ministries still remain in so-called temporary hands. Iyyad Allawi, the head of al-Iraqiya, has had an ongoing political rift and escalating war of words with Maliki accusing him of monopolisation of power and reneging on the Erbil agreement.

As the current crisis has escalated, an already bewildered al-Iraqiya decided to boycott parliament. Renew sectarian bloodshed coupled with a collapse of the current government may place Iraq in a point of no return and without a bail-out from the US this time around.

It is easy to overlook that Sunni Sahwa councils were a significant factor in the decline of violence and they still remain a localised Sunni tool rather than a national possession. Without a balanced security apparatus, Iraq will have three different armies guarding each of the major factions of Iraq.

The Sunni-Shiite power struggle is also exhibited in the increasing ploy of largely Sunni provinces to manipulate constitutional clauses and seek regional autonomy to place Maliki in a difficult bargaining corner and to safeguard their powerbases.

While much of Iraq has been stuck in a rut, Kurdistan has enjoyed unprecedented progression much to the regular dismay than applaud from Baghdad. More than any other group, the Kurds were most disappointed by the US exit and left them feeling anxious at hostile parties around them.

Renewed sectarianism and friction in Baghdad will see the Kurds embroiled in a fresh nightmare that will only blight the attraction and evolvement of the region. Furthermore, the Kurds have been so busy helping construct successive governments in Baghdad and then help papering over the cracks that they have seemingly overlooked that Baghdad has seldom kept their end of the bargain and has gotten away without any real political repercussions.

Kurdistan has waited for almost a decade for the return of Kirkuk and disputed territories and has waited many years for key laws such as a national hydrocarbon law to be adopted. In reality, unless Kurdistan takes matters into their own hands and pushes Baghdad in no uncertain terms, they will wait yet another decade for the return of their lands.

As kingmakers, Kurds have taken a tough-line position in negotiations over successive government formations, while Baghdad has dragged their heels in the commitments they have agreed to as part of the initial wooing of Kurdish blocs.

Just as the jostling of power between Sunni and Shiites will come to the boil at some point, especially if the proviso of parliament and politics is seen as an insufficient forum, then the increasing bitter relationship between Erbil and Baghdad will take similar suit if it indefinitely becomes stuck in a detrimental cycle.

While much of how the proceedings play out is in the hands of the Iraqi leaders, the difficulties already inherent are only exasperated by the influence of neighbouring countries. As the US formally withdraws, the battle for influence in Iraq will only heighten.

The Shiite-led government of al-Maliki openly sways towards Tehran and has defended the Allawite and fellow Shiite Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, while most of the Arab world has turned increasingly against him. All the while, Sunni neighbours such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia looks anxiously at the alliances formed by Baghdad.

As the Middle East has evolved greatly as a result of the Arab Spring, Iraq will need to greatly alter the relations with its neighbours.

At the same time, Kurdistan which is already under great constraints due to the weary eye of its neighbours, strives for good relations with all sides and must not rely on the sentiments of Baghdad in achieving its nationalist ambitions.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

Another political fallout in Kurdistan at a time when need for unity greatest

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Just when an aurora of calm and stability was returning to Kurdistan following the several weeks of riots that were instigated earlier this year in Sulaimanyia, turmoil, tension and anger returned to the scene once again in Kurdistan.

The riots over the past week, which started when a large number of liquor stores, massage parlors and other venues deemed un-religious, were set on fire after Friday prayers, quickly spread across the Duhok region.

The much unfortunate attacks on such shops and massage parlors, seemingly a direct attack on the Kurdish Christian and Yezidi community, were followed by tit-for-tit reprisal attacks by other group of rioters where a number of buildings of Kurdistan Islamist Union (KIU) and some media offices were set on fire.

In a repeat of heightened tensions that ensued in February of this year in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) stronghold in the east of the Kurdistan Region with Gorran at the center of the political and social exchanges, this time it was the west of the Region and the stronghold of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the KIU at the heart of the controversies.

Either way, such events prove the sensitivity of the Kurdistan Region and how polarised Kurdistan continues to be along mainly political but also sectarian lines.

Tensions always escalate rapidly with a culture of a blame game and media war taking precedence. Accusatory fingers by either side or attacks on their credibility via the media simply add great fuel to the fire in a region renowned for passion and strong emotions when it comes to political affiliations and nationalism.

In truth, such events much like those in February can never be judged merely on the surface of affairs. In practice, there is a series of underhand reasoning”s, probabilities and intentions that have been used to spark a downward spiral of relations.

Was it the KIU that encouraged violence in the first place on dozens of shops and other outlets in Zakho, was it the KDP that was responsible for the burning of KIU buildings, was it the KDP that was responsible for any crackdown of rioters? Was it actually a member of KIU that intended to greatly harm the images of both KIU itself and the KDP for certain gain? Or was it actually someone from the KDP who intended to harm the image of both sides?

Could such attacks have been perpetrated by Islamist groups in the greater Iraq with influence on elements in the region?

It was widely alleged that emotions on Friday were heightened by fiery sermons in Zakho with the KRG in particular blaming a particular Imam with alleged ties to KIU.

As always the questions pondered rage unanswered with the obsession of finding a side to blame taking significance. Rather than singling out the minority elements of each party in such episodes, the blame is quickly shifted to the whole party and the whole government.

What is clear is that while the attacks on so-called western icons in Zakho may seem to have a religious grounding, in reality the fundamental undertones are political.

These liqueur stores or the like did not appear overnight in Zakho or in the Kurdistan Region. They have been there for years that have encompassed various events of political turmoil, so why now?

The region is renowned for its religious and ethnic tolerance and it”s embracing of pluralism and indeed the KIU and other Islamist-rooted parties would be hard-pressed not to agree that that is one element of the Kurdish landscape that has received a lot of positive light from Western powers, in a greater region hardly renowned for its tolerance or pluralism.

There is no smoke without fire and all signs to point a pre-mediated set of events. It”s hard to believe that events in Zakho and subsequent incidents were simply spontaneous in nature.

Such is the level of passion that political parties and protesters almost expect harsh reprisal actions following initial violent attacks. It is almost a case of goading of sentiments, with key elements taking full advantage of the emotive and political polarisation that appears at such turns.

Tensions between the KIU and KDP is not new, you only need to go back to 2005 when small group of supporters attacked their buildings, with the KDP later compensating families of victims and renovating KIU buildings. With the Duhok province a longtime stronghold of the KDP, with the KDP weeks away from assuming the premiership a further time and with the much anticipated provincial elections around the corner, these stirring of tensions, blame games and media war allows early points to be scored.

Although the relations between the ruling parties and opposition groups have calmed significantly, there has been a lack of real reconciliation, dialogue and concord. Aside from KIU statements this week against the KDP, all opposition parties still have somewhat of a bitter taste in their mouths.

In this light, it was hardly surprising when it was announced this week that opposition groups had refused to take part in proposed multi-party talks, with Gorran stating their solidarity with the KIU “for the oppression they were subjected to”.

Kurdistan Region President, Massaud Barzani, promised a full investigation of the incidents and vowed to hold any perpetrator to account regardless of political affiliation.

Indeed, this is not about the KIU, KDP or any other political party. This is about preserving the interests of Kurdistan and preserving the interests of the people who ultimately vote for these parties. Injustice has the same connotations no matter the background and any wrong doing, criminal attacks or violent reprisals must be fully accounted for no matter who the guilty party turns out to be.

The most unfortunate casualty of this setback is the media. The media becomes a default target where emotions are channeled. Journalists, media outlets and freedom of speech must be protected as a symbol of our society. However, by the same token this does give the media, especially those owned by the political parties, the right to enflame tensions, spread false accusations or mislead viewers.

KDP has issues statements expecting the KIU to end the media war it believe was instigated again the KDP. The media war in Kurdistan is perhaps the greatest poison of such riots. The Committee to Protect Journalists and Reports Without Borders quickly condemned all political factions for the targeting of the media.

Other opposition parties should be a part of reconciliation in such circumstances, after all they are still an accountable part of the political interests of Kurdistan. However, all too often such events and deepening of wounds is manipulated to serve political interests, not the interests of the Region.

These events also clearly demonstrate that real soothing of political and social tension never happened after the February violence. The KRG must continue their investigation of the events earlier this year, rapidly conduct investigation via a formal committee on the latest riots and proceed with the positive reform that was announced.

As Kurdistan attracts more and more foreign interest, more foreign consuls are opened and further portals to the outside world are created, it conversely draws attention more quickly.

Kurdistan needs unity more than ever, with key disputes in Baghdad as tense as ever, with Kurdistan surrounded by hostile partners and with the stability of the Region at stake. Within the region itself, finger pointing and media wars may tarnish individual parties, to the outside world all of Kurdistan becomes tarnished.

The Yezidi and Christian communities have been a heralded icon of Kurdish society for thousands of years. For hundreds of years they have lived with fellow Muslims and under Islamist empires. Are they really the source of problem in Kurdistan all of a sudden? The Yezidi and Christian community calls for protection must be heeded and the notion of tolerance in Kurdistan must be reinforced.

Christian and various other sects in the south of Iraq have flocked to the region for safety where they have been embraced as brothers. This is a proud achievement for Kurdistan that has not gone unnoticed even in the Vatican.

The onus is on both the KIU, KDP and KRG to put this issue aside, investigate fully and protects the interests and unity of Kurdistan at all costs.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

Interview with British Consul General Chris Bowers

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There are huge opportunities, people should come and explore it for themselves because they will find a real welcome here and find a region that is on a dash for modernity” – Chris Bowers

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel of the Kurdish Globe spoke with the British Consul General to Kurdistan, Chris Bowers, on the historic relationship between the Kurds and UK, the ever developing economic ties between the UK and Kurdistan, Kurdistan”s new strategic role within the Middle East and future relations between the UK and Kurdistan amongst a number of other local and regional issues.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – First of all, thank you very much for your time with the Globe. Let us start with how do you view the current relationship between KRG and the UK government?

Chris Bowers - Great. We are in a really good phase at the moment. You would expect me to say that but it is actually true. We have enjoyed very close working relationship with the KRG. I think it is a very warm relationship and that warmth enables us to speak clearly and openly I”m delighted that recently we have really improved the commercial element – 70 British firms in the Erbil Trade Fair is a fantastic result. And that now shows that people and businesses in the UK see Kurdistan as a place to do business and I think that says a lot for Kurdistan, says a lot for the KRG and specifically says a lot about the activities of KRG”s representative in London who I believe has done a fantastic job.

One thing that is really going to change the economic relationship between the UK and Kurdistan is the huger merger between Genel and Tony Hayward”s investment vehicle, that has now launched as a FTSE100 company which will mean that all the analysts in London covering the pension funds, the investment funds, the tracker funds and the like will all have to know about the Kurdistan Region.

A year or so ago, you could be an analyst in the city and not need to know about the Kurdistan Region. That has now changed and that is a very big development.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – The Kurds have a deep affection with the UK that began with its role in the creation of the 1991 safe haven, for Kurds anxious about their future fate based on their past, how does the UK government reassure them about an ongoing partnership and relationship going forward?

Chris Bowers - Well, I think the best defence for the Kurds is that the KRG continues to be a prosperous, effective and democratic region. That is the best defence. Also the region has relations with Baghdad that have in the past been difficult and I think it is never going to be the easiest of relationships but I think it”s a relationship that can work and the Kurdistan Region needs to do what it can to make it work. So these are the key factors in terms of security for the Kurds and of course relations with their neighbors.

The relations with Turkey have been very good recently and we are delighted about that. We see ourselves as one of Turkey”s biggest supporters and friends – obviously Iran is another kettle of fish. We see a growing number of commercial ties between the Kurdistan Region and the UK. . One of the best things for the future is also the higher education links. We have had a very successful outreach with the Kurdistan Region and with the Kurdish people and Kurdish students. I think now the Kurdish students who are thinking about where they should study abroad under the Human Capacity Development Programme think about UK as a first choice destination, and we are thrilled about that. My ambassador stated when we were starting to assist the programme, that if we cannot help educate the next generation of Kurdish leaders then we should go home. Well, we are still here!.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – As someone with oversight of the Middle East and Iraq, what role do you see Kurdistan playing in Iraq and the greater Middle East moving forward?

We see the Kurdistan Region as a place where Iraq can road test initiatives. The Kurdistan Region is in the fortunate position of being more stable and secure. I think it is more committed to market economy and has a clear vision for the future. If you were living in the rest of Iraq, say you are a governor and you want to know how you can build an airport, how you can attract businesses, how can you provide a safe environment, how you can provide an accountable government – where would you go to learn that? You would come to Kurdistan. So that”s a tremendous asset to the whole of Iraq, and it is something which the government here can promote. I believe it is a very important role. It”s really noticeable as well that this is a part of the world that has a great commitment to tolerance. That is another important lesson for the whole region. If you look at the broader region there are not that many countries in the Arab world in the Middle East which have a functioning federal structure. Arab states have tended to be unitary and centralized and if Iraq can show how an effective functioning federal system can work then that is a great message for the whole region. Of course a federal structure implies a relationship which is why we think the relationship between Baghdad and Kurdistan is so important.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Taking that a step forward, people mention Kurdistan but for the Kurdish people Kurdistan geographically stretches a lot further. In terms of its role as a partner to Iran and Turkey and as a major nationality in the region, do you see it as a strategic power?

The best role and function for the Kurdistan Region is to make the region as effective, successful and prosperous as possible. To create a beacon is the best support for the Iraqi Kurdish people and I think this is exactly what the government and the Kurdish people are trying to do.

As for neighboring states have their own policies and their own functions.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – One thing we have seen in the PKK and PJAK struggle, that there is now a notion that the KRG can play a mediator role whereas before Tehran and Ankara were quick to say “you are the problem”. Do you believe the KRG can be the solution providers in the internal affairs of these countries?

Firstly, the PKK is a terrorist organisation. It is classified as such by the UK and EU. We call upon the PKK to lay down their arms. The leadership in this region thinks the era of fighting is over, that it is now a time for discussion and negotiation and I think that is very true. The government here has done a great job in reaching out to Turkey and making a clear distinction between the PKK and the KRG. I think that is a vital distinction and my sense is that the Turkish leadership now understood that and that is a huge progress which is to the credit of both governments.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – What is your view of the Arab Spring and the ever-changing sociopolitical dynamic in the Middle East that even today is raging in Syria?

Where we see people demanding their rights this is hugely positive. It seems that we are still part way through the process of the Arab spring. Of course we support people”s struggle for greater accountability. That is what we hear – people want governments that are accountable and effective, governments that really speak for ordinary people. That is a tremendous thing. Wherever possible, we would like to see this happen in a peaceful basis. As you know, the UK and EU have been very clear in their belief that it is the time for Assad to go and we are sticking by that position. The sanctions in place reflect the seriousness with which the international community sees the situation in Syria.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Recently the 7^th Erbil Trade Fair took place, what was your general overview of this?

It was great – a tremendous event. I”m thrilled by the UK participation in the fair with 70 companies and you know there were more people, more businessmen on the delegation which came to Erbil than went with the last delegation to China. Why was that? Mainly because of the opportunities here and the pro-business climate the KRG has created here. Erbil is a City of Possibilities in a Region of Opportunity. There has been a lot of hard work that has gone into that, a lot of hard work from the KRG representative in London, from the MEA and from our side as well. And, of course, getting them here is half of the story, the response they got from Kurdish companies was very warm and the buzz around the delegation was very encouraging and very positive. Many companies said that they had lots of positive meetings, lots of contacts and even some signed contracts. Like any business, they now need to follow up these leads and make sure that they really get the benefits. The trade fair provides the platform for people to meet other people and opportunity to make those contacts and in that sense from a UK perspective it was an absolutely great event.

We were in particular pleased with the Northern Ireland element – there is a real synergy between Northern Ireland and the Kurdistan Region. Both are former areas of conflict that are now emerging with a new dynamism and new commitment to engage with the outside world. Both are conscious that because their image in the international scene has been one of conflict, the regions have to make extra effort and go the extra mile to convince people to do business with them.

Bashdar Push Ismaeel – Looking at foreign companies that have taken the plunge or risk, there are a number of British based companies such Gulf Keystone Petroleum, Heritage Oil and Sterling Energy. What is your view?

Right now, UK companies are managing 12 blocs making us a leading hydrocarbon partner for the KRG and we are delighted by that. In the last six months UK oil companies have invested something like 3 billion US dollars into the Kurdistan Region. That is a really significant vote of confidence in the Kurdistan Region.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – With the huge success of the so-called minors, is the time ripe for major oil players such as BP and Shell to enter the fold?

What is becoming clear is that we are entering a new phase in the development of Kurdish hydrocarbon development and I imagine that there will be further consolidation in the markets in the next year. The significant reserves here are going to attract any major company and the companies can speak for themselves but of course assets that like that are interesting. What I would to say about UK companies is that when they come in, they come for 40 years which is their general investment timescale.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – If you had a message for potential foreign investors everywhere who may still be unsure or tentative regarding Kurdistan, what would you say to them?

Come and take a look. There are real opportunities here; there is a premium to being British. There are huge opportunities, people should come and explore it for themselves because they will find a real welcome here and find a region that is on a dash for modernity, it”s a region wants to catch up for the time it has lost and a region which is committed to developing its international engagements and that is very positive.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – The historic British Film Festival in Kurdistan was intriguing and exciting to say the least, tell us more.

Chris Bowers - We were thrilled by the success of the British Film Festival in the Kurdistan Region, the first of its type. We showed 15 films from the 26^th to 28^th November at the Saad Palace with free entry, open to all. We even had a 100 metre red carpet and popcorn! It felt like a real film experience. Why did we do? Firstly, because they are great films and we wanted people to see Britain through the eyes of film-makers. The films were entertaining and watching films is a fun and sociable part of life. Secondly, it shows the profile of Erbil, that it is the kind of city where you can hold a film festival. This will help change people”s perceptions internationally and shows people that Kurdistan has a secure environment where people can go out on the streets and watch a film festival. Thirdly, we brought British film makers over to speak to young Kurdish film makers because the Kurdistan Region”s story has not been told yet and it can be told through film. It is partially about identity and telling the world your story. We want to see a new generation of Iraqi Kurdish film-makers showing their films in KR and in international festivals around the world.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

KRG Foreign Relations Minister answers questions on key developments

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Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel of the Kurdish Globe spoke with KRG Minister Falah Mustafa Bakir – Head of the Department of Foreign Relations on a number of issues.

At a critical juncture in the Middle East, internally within Iraq and also in the context of global relations, the topic of KRG relations with its neighbours, its partners in Iraq and within the wider community takes ever greater significance.

The interview intended to gauge a number of critical factors affecting foreign relations and the Kurdistan Region”s onward strategic advancement on political, social and economic levels.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – First of all Kak Falah, thank you very much for your time with the Kurdish Globe. We have a few questions we would like to cover that encompass local and regional news, events and key political developments.

Perhaps, the first and best place to start for the Kurdish Region is its relations with neighbouring countries, specifically President Massoud Barzani”s recent visits to Tehran and Istanbul. What is your view of the current state of relations between the Kurdistan Region and both respective countries?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – You are welcome for the time, and thank you for the opportunity to shed some light on these issues. I believe that this is an important moment in our history and thus relations with neighbouring countries and the international community are essential for us. As you have mentioned, we have always wanted relations based on mutual trust, mutual respect and mutual understanding. And also to have the kind of relationships that are mutually beneficial for both sides.

As you know, President Barzani has just visited the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Turkey, and these visits underpin our belief that relations with our neighbours are very important for us. We have been able to make significant progress in our relations in recent years, and these relations will benefit this Region in terms of stability, security, economic development and overall prosperity.

As the president says, this kind of interaction and direct communication is a top priority for us so that our neighbours understand where we stand, what we stand for and what we want. By the same token, it is essential that we maintain an understanding of what our neighbours want, what kind of relationship they want and where they stand on key issues.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – As the centre of Kurdish nationalism and a landmark in Kurdish history, do you believe that the KRG can act as the key to peace in both Tehran and Ankara with regards to their respective Kurdish populations?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – We have always stated very clearly that we support and sympathise with the rights of the Kurdish people wherever they may live and have always encouraged them to find peaceful and democratic solutions to problems with the governments in their respective countries so that they could obtain a prosperous and bright future.

Our people have suffered a great deal; we have witnessed tragedies, oppression, denial and deprivation. It is time to enjoy a better future. We want to make clear that we abide by international law, and we are fully in favour of good neighbourly relations based on non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign countries. We are committed to this principle as well as to the respect, integrity and unity of each country. We desire relations that are based on respect, understanding and dialogue that will enhance the peace, stability and security of both sides. We understand that it is normal to have differences but at the same time we have a lot of common goals; thus, we try to focus on such commonalities so that through dialogue we can ease the tension, solve problems, and address the issues.

As the President said while we were in Turkey two weeks ago, the Kurdistan Region is prepared to fully cooperate and support any peaceful efforts to resolve the issues between our neighbouring governments and their respective Kurdish citizens. However, we will not endorse any plans that involve violence and conflict.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – In that regard, not necessarily just within Iraq but in the wider region and beyond, are people increasingly seeing Kurdistan as a strategic power in its own right?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – The Kurdistan Region has to be taken for the values it stands for, for its key strengths and also for its resources, including both human and natural resources. It has to be taken for the principles it stands for including tolerance, liberalism and democracy, where we not only believe in talking about of such values but also in actively practicing them.

We share the values of western democracies, the respect of human rights, individual and public freedoms, freedom of the media, rule of law, and an active and vibrant participation of civil society. These are the values and principles we stand for, and I believe those who visit the region and have a first-hand experience of it are greatly impressed by the progress we have made, particularly considering the troubled area in which we live. There are many problems, and we are surrounded by conflict, but we have been able to make significant progress in spite of these constraints.

Therefore, I believe we could be a key factor in helping to solve and address problems in the wider region as well. Through supporting and promoting tolerance, including political tolerance, religious tolerance and ethnic and cultural tolerance, we can stand as an example that democracy can work in this region. In addition, our commitment to the role of women in public and private life, to the empowerment of women, to benefitting from their special contribution and from that of the youth, we can serve as an example to others. As a society, and also as a government, these are areas that are of paramount importance to us.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Taking that concept a step forward, with the Arab Spring that has arrived this year, many have realised the sway and velocity of people power that is still on-going specifically in Syria, what is your view of the Arab Spring and how it can benefit the Kurdish populations all over?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – In fact, it is easy to forget that the Kurdish Spring started much earlier, over two decades ago. We welcome this wave of uprisings because we believe at the end of the day, it has to be the people in these countries that determine their own future and decide on the system of governance that they will live under. We welcome democratic alternatives to the current regimes in power and we believe that everybody will be better off by having a democratic Middle East and North Africa.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – If the uprisings turned violent and the regimes go down fighting as we witnessed in Libya and now in Syria where the Kurdish population is directly affected by a harsh government crackdown, what is the stance of the KRG?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – History has proved that no ultimate solution can be achieved through weapons and military means. The only way problems can be truly resolved is through dialogue and negotiations, and through peaceful, democratic means. I believe in certain cases, such as Syria, when it passes the point of no return, the regime in Syria will have to accept this reality. It is a clear sign of weakness when the only means of sustaining power is through the use of force, and whenever even this fails, then there truly must be a change. History has shown that it is only a matter of time before an oppressed people will rise up and demand that their natural rights are respected.

Therefore it is important for the governments around us, those still not under democratic systems to know that the time of totalitarian based regimes is over. At the end of the day it is the people who lie at the source of countries prosperity and its future direction. So In the case of Kurdistan that has produced two generations who have now lived in democracy and freedom, it would now be impossible for them to live under a dictatorship again.

I believe that as time passes, people will also realise more and more that Iraq was in a unique position having its spring in 2003, while the Arab Spring started much later. I believe the Middle East region is on the right track towards a new brighter future, but the concern now is ensuring that these revolutionary waves lead to the establishment of democratic alternatives in order to promote the interests of the people, to generate equality, justice, distribution of power and wealth, and at the end of the day, to allow people to live better lives.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel - The use of force obviously works both ways. One is the use of force by the government on the people and the other is the use of force by the people against the government as in the case with both PJAK and PKK that seeking greater rights. With the positive statement from both President Barzani and also Tehran regarding the end of the issue with the PJAK, do you feel that peace can really be achieved after decades of conflict and social turmoil?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – It is important to clarify that the KRG is not part of the problems in neighbouring countries as both the PKK issue in Turkey and the PJAK issue in Iran are internal issues. However, at the same time, we do realise that these groups are present at the border areas of Kurdistan region and we want to help, as much as we can, to find peaceful solutions to these issues. If our assistance is desired, then we are ready to do whatever we can, for the sake of a peaceful and democratic solution to these problems.

We believe that the time has come for governments and political organisations to understand that there is a lot that can be achieved through peace and dialogue. History has proved the limitations of military confrontation through the experiences of the IRA, PLO and others. If fighting continues then the end result is only more bloodshed. At one point you have to say, enough is enough, let”s try another way. These problems should have been solved earlier. Force has been used by both sides. Even here in the Kurdistan Region, force was used against the Iraqi regime and the Iraqi government used tools of destruction, chemical weapons, the Anfal campaign and all kinds of weapons, but they were not able to annihilate the Kurdish people, they were not able to solve the problems. With the uprising of 1991, we were able to free our region from the dictatorial regime that was in power.

In Turkey, where there are democratic elections, parliaments and elected Kurdish politicians, the best way is to fight for rights within parliament, using democratic tools and using peaceful means including the media and civil society. There is a lot that can be achieved through peaceful means, and killing will never bring about a solution.

Since the PJAK and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to stop fighting, all parties now have a chance to focus their energy on initiatives that can achieve long-term peace, stability, economic growth, investment, job opportunities etc.

These problems are of a political nature, they”re not militaristic problems. Cultural activities, artistic development projects, economic activities, commercial activities, are all factors that can help bring about solutions, so it”s not just about weapons being used.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Therefore, the underlying message is that for that elusive peace to be achieved, it will take both sides to reach out a hand. Turkey to listen and reach out a hand to the Kurds and for the Kurds to embrace Ankara.

Falah Mustafa Bakir – The Turkish government, with the onset of democratic initiatives and the courageous steps that have been taken by Prime Minister Erdogan in order to address these problems have all shown their desire to reach out. However, we have to be realistic and appreciate that this process will not happen overnight; it takes time, it takes patience, perseverance, hard work and mutual trust. Confidence must be built so that both sides can trust each other.

What”s important for us is that the relations between the Kurdistan Region and Turkey remain strong. Turkey, as an important neighbour, wants to have a key role in Iraq. We can be a gateway for Turkey”s economic interests, commercial activities, investment, and cultural exchange programs in Iraq, so there is a lot of room for cooperation and understanding. I believe that with the right policies and understanding at the leadership level, we will be able to make progress on both sides. The facts that the Turkish Consulate General is active in Erbil, that the largest proportion of international companies in the Region (about 900 or so) are Turkish and that Turkish banks, schools and universities have been established in the region all speak volumes. We want to build on our common ground and further encourage this business and cultural exchange.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Perhaps those external relations can only be driven that much stronger, with strong relations internally with Baghdad. The Kurds are part of a coalition government in Baghdad that many describe as fragile or tentative and with the withdrawal of US forces at the end of the year to compound matters. What is your view on the current state of relations and will it be a factor for reconciliation or further feuds after the US withdrawal?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – We want Baghdad to look realistically at the current situation. If Baghdad thinks time is in their interest or if they have no political will to solve problems, we will never solve any problems or achieve any semblance of a stable, secure and prosperous Iraq. Iraq is a rich country, but this richness is no guarantee to a bright future if there is an absence of right polices.

What we need in Baghdad is a visionary leadership working for a better future, with commitment to that future and the political will to solve problems. Baghdad does not have a firm understanding of some key facts. The Kurds are the second largest nationality in Iraq. We are not guests and we will no longer submit to being repressed, oppressed and treated as second class citizens. The Iraq constitution even before the fall of the regime was clear that Iraq is comprised of two nationalities, Kurds and Arabs. Arabic and Kurdish are the two official languages of the country.

We have all the characteristics of a state including people, land, language, history, civilisation and culture of our own. The only reason we don”t have a state of our own is due to political complications and past injustices. Since we are determined to work for a better future for our people, we have committed ourselves to a federal, plural and democratic Iraq. An Iraq that lives in peace with its own communities and its neighbours. An Iraq where all are equal, an Iraq that works for peaceful and long lasting solutions. We have confidence in ourselves, trust in our leadership and trust in our people, and we know that the future is in our own hands. But we want a peaceful and long-lasting relationship with the rest of Iraq.

Therefore we have been patient, flexible and endured a lot, but it is time for Baghdad to play their part in keeping a peaceful and united Iraq. The moment Baghdad is ready and willing, these problems can be solved. These are not unsolvable issues.

The underlying political problems in Iraq have to be resolved as well as economic problems before the situation can change for the better. Because there are a lot of possible hazards on the table (the Sunni-Shiite disputes, ethnic struggles, economic and political challenges and external threats), Baghdad must find the will to solve problems in new ways rather than trying to use the commonly accepted methods of the past. If Baghdad abides by the constitution, has enough political will and understanding then Iraq can remain on the right track, but there has to be common acknowledgement that only dialogue and understanding can resolve any problems.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – It seems to me that withdrawal of US forces may not change a great deal of the political landscape. The common Iraqi problems were there and will be there regardless of US forces, so really the onus is on Baghdad.

Falah Mustafa Bakir – The security mechanisms and the balance of power will change. Although we have the UN, and we believe they need to be heavily engaged in supporting political issues in Iraq by aiding, advising and helping to seek solutions, we strongly welcome the EU to be more present. We encourage greater participation and assistance by more EU member states and we encourage other Arab countries to have a greater presence in Iraq, and of course, when I say Iraq, I mean they also need to be present in the Kurdistan Region. The EU should have an office here, Arab countries should open their consulates as we need to be part of whatever goes on in Iraq as a whole. There are potential threats and problems that include both domestic and external factors, so as Iraqis we need to put aside our differences, be open with each other, and work with each other so we can have a better future.

We are a people that have suffered a lot, but we are not captives of our own history. We are a forward looking nation that wants to secure a better future for our people, but this cannot happen overnight, nor can it happen without external assistance. We need the support of the international community, we need to have a democratic system in Iraq, and we need people to understand that.

People in the rest of Iraq are not doing us a favour by trying to solve problems apart from the federal constitution. There are commitments, there are political agreements and there are issues that are enshrined in our constitution. Identity is an important thing for us, and we will not allow anybody to take our identity from us. We refused to surrender to the will of Saddam Hussein, and we will certainly not surrender to any similar dictatorial regimes that may come after his.

Kurdish identity has to be respected. People in this region have to feel that they are equal citizens of Iraq and that they are free to enjoy their full rights within this country. We are a model and a success story with a vibrant economy where the growth rate is over 8% per year, GDP per capita is over $5000 a year. There is political maturity, a vibrant civil society and institutions, and day after day the region makes progress as it works with the outside world. We are what we are because of the values we stand for. We believe in equality, justice and tolerance. We are proud that there are over 20 foreign representations in the region, which have benefited from their presence politically, economically and culturally. The KRG is constantly reaching out to international partners, and we are actively looking to bolster foreign representations in this region. Currently we have 12 KRG representations abroad and hoping to actively increase these also, as they are an essential means of encouraging people, businesses, universities and institutions to grow in Kurdistan.