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Kurds caught in the middle as tensions in Iraq are stoked by regional jockeying

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With the political crisis in Iraq already at a critical juncture, domestic and regional events this week served to intensify tensions.

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki formally suspended a number of ministers from the predominantly Sunni-based al-Iraqiya list after weeks of boycotts. As internal parties continued frantic jockeying to soothe friction and find a way forward, fierce rhetoric from rival factions only further highlighted the prevalent fractured landscape and a strong sense of animosity.

Over the past weeks, with realization of the great perils that the current sectarian stand-off threatens to unearth, regional neighbours particularly Turkey have been getting overly anxious.

The reality of Iraq”s diverse socio-ethnic mosaic and its fractured foundations is hardly new, the threats and problems that exist today have not developed overnight and have existed for decades were they only become more magnified after 2003.

However, the ever evolving Middle Eastern struggle for influence and supremacy has left the likes of Turkey on the edge. Turkey realizes that with the highly-volatile and sensitive Middle Eastern climate, it can either wait on the side and become consumed by the end products that ensue or actively try and influence the current tides for its ultimate benefit.

Iraq has often been a playground for regional powers and the current predicament is only a by-product of this. The current standoff that began with the arrest warrant of Sunni Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi and the resulting acrimonious fallout has as much of a regional footing as a local one.

The Arab Spring which is still ongoing in Syria has set a new benchmark in the Middle East and along with it a lot of political, sectarian and strategic wavering.

Add the US withdrawal in Iraq, Turkey”s frosty relations with Israel and its continuing struggle with the PKK, a new round of sanctions to punish Iran”s growing nuclear clout, Iran”s increasing faceoff with the Sunni Arab Gulf states and one can see that the Middle East is a deep interconnected web of ties and proxy battles.

Turkey has acknowledged and highlighted the dangers of Iraqi fragmentation before any other side due to sensitivities with the preservation of their own borders, but they have become more vociferous in recent weeks amidst what they deem as a Shiite grasp of power aided by an increasingly isolated Iranian regime. Tehran”s relations with Ankara have certainly cooled and Iran has used its immense leverage on Iraq and Syria to show that it still has plenty of strings to pull.

Iraq”s continuous solidarity with Syria is a byproduct of Iranian influence and is a stark contrast to the Turkish stance on Bashar al-Assad”s waning regime.

Tensions between Baghdad and Ankara were deepened when the Turkish Foreign Ministry summoned Iraq”s ambassador to Turkey, Abdulemir Kamil Abi-Tabikh, to its headquarters in Ankara to express their anger at al-Maliki growing hard-line statements and criticism towards Turkey. This was just a day after Baghdad had done the same to show their displeasure at what they saw as Turkish interference.

The attacks on the Turkish embassy in Baghdad are only likely to stoke sentiments further.

The Kurds are not a party to the sectarian battle in Iraq but nevertheless become ubiquitously sucked into the standoff. The Kurds were often looked at by Turkey as an instigator of a future breakup but Turkey has to soon come to terms that an Iraqi split will not be on a part of the Kurds and plan for the eventuality that sooner or later that they will need to embrace an independent Kurdistan.

Turkey is already relying heavily on the Kurds to maintain equilibrium and leverage in Iraq. The shift towards sectarianism by Baghdad is evident in the eyes of Ankara who perceive the dilution of Sunni power in parliament and controversy around al-Hashemi as testimony to this view.

While Turkey has warned that current political antics risk the break-up of Iraq, ironically al-Maliki has in turn warned that “Turkey is playing a role that might bring disaster and civil war to the region and will suffer because it has different sects and ethnicities.”

No doubt the growing prominence of the Kurds in Iraq and ongoing disgruntled noises of millions of Kurds in south eastern Turkey is keeping Turkey restless at night. Not to mention that Turkey may end up a passive player in the shape of proceedings in spite of all its efforts as changes unravel around it.

As we have seen with the Arab Spring, it doesn”t take much to create a political avalanche that can bring more change in mere weeks than decades prior.

Turkish warnings over the current state of regional meddling in Iraq may speak true but are certainly contradictory. The same regional influence that they fear that Iraqi blocs will fall under has been raging for over 8 years and Turkey has been a key component of this.

Although, many had hoped that al-Hashemi would be giving a fair trial with a legal rather than a political underpinning and that the tensions could be cooled by an all-inclusive national conference, the suspension of al-Iraqiya MP”s placed further cloud on the prospects of near-term compromise and concord.

Al-Iraqiya leader, Ayad Allawi warned this week that Iraq needs a new prime minister or new elections to prevent the country from falling apart. Both these demands may not come anytime soon. Al-Maliki still enjoys fair amount of support in Baghdad and crucially still has Kurdish backing.

The key task for the Kurdistan leadership is play their cards wisely but also do what is the interests of Kurdistan and not simply aid political jockeying in Baghdad. The Kurds could well pull the rug under the feet of al-Maliki and after this week”s turn of events, Ankara will be siding and pressurizing the Kurds closely to contain al-Maliki.

As the KDP resumes the premiership with the imminent return of Nechirvan Barzani to spearhead the next Kurdistan government, the Kurdistan Region finds itself at a crucial but highly delicate juncture. What dice the Kurds roll and what cards they play could echo for many more years. As Kurds realized to their detriment for decades after the fall of the Ottoman Empire, missing historical opportunities can set-back a nation many more years.

If their yearly ploys to glue Iraq together bear only counterproductive fruit for the Kurdish people, then the serious question must be asked of the Kurdish leadership. If Iraq continuously deploys policies that are counter to the principles of voluntary union and national harmony, then the Kurds must formally declare their independence.

The situation in Iraq after 8 years of fierce pushing, hand holding and direct support from Washington didn”t bring much joy, and it is unlikely that the current situation in Iraq can be magically transformed.

Deep rooted problems need deep rooted solutions. The simple reality is that as a majority and with significant backing of Tehran, the Shiites are not about to relinquish power in Baghdad anytime soon. The Sunni will continue to feel marginalized unless they can win some form of autonomy or real decision making posts in Baghdad which as witnessed under the State of Law coalition, will not be easily ceded.

As part of the current coalition underpinned by the Erbil agreement, al-Iraqiya was to be afforded executive decision making posts which never materialized. Al-Iraqiya discontent was already at tipping point long before the al-Hashemi debacle.

It is the political environment that often makes a leader and thus even if al-Maliki was replaced, it is not certain that significant outcomes can be achieved. Furthermore, new elections will only result in another de-facto national census, with no clear winner due to the factional split and thus the same arduous process of coalition building.

The regional turmoil itself is only just brewing. If Iran carries out its threat to close the strategic Strait of Hormuz then it places regional governments into a tougher corner. Iraq itself could find itself in a precarious position against its allies, as the closing of the Gulf passage would cripple the Iraqi economy. Meanwhile, Turkey is unlikely to heed al-Maliki”s warnings not to interfere when they have so much at stake.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

The regional fear of the disintegration of Iraq is out-dated, it has already happened.

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The fear of the disintegration of Iraq is hardly breaking news. A persistent theme of the past 9 or so years of the new Iraq has been how to preserve unity and bring about true national reconciliation amongst a climate of deep mistrust.

Iraq in its transition to democracy may have achieved historical junctures but it has often stumbled to its milestones as opposed to a painless arrival at its new dawn.

More often than not, the major achievements in Iraq were underscored by heavy US pressure and much political jockeying and drama in Baghdad. As successive crisis”s have brewed, a semblance of calm were somewhat reinstated in the short-term by last minute dealings but too often at the expense of any long-term benefits. A policy of brushing key issues under the political rug always ran the risk of haunting the Iraqi political arena at some stage and just days after the US symbolic withdrawal from Iraq, another explosive crisis reared its ugly head in Iraq.

If the issues are been assessed at the surface then one can argue that current turmoil was instigated by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki”s issuance of an arrest warrant against Iraq”s Sunni Vice-President, Tariq al-Hashemi and the subsequent ploy to sideline Sunni Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlak from power. However, the water has been boiling on the sieve for several months and for one reason or another, it wouldn”t have taken much to tip sentiments over the edge.

Just take the current brittle coalition that was remarkably concluded after 11 months and set an unwanted world record. That in itself sums up all that is needed to explain the current upheaval and instability.

Even though Iyad Allawi”s predominantly Sunni-based al-Iraqiya group were the ultimate victors at the polls, they were threatened with been marginalised by al-Maliki”s Shiite Coalition. Months of wrangling ensured agreement on power-sharing but more through gritted teeth than true brotherly reconciliation.

Once al-Iraqiya didn”t get the empowered it demanded and real decision making authority, it was always a question of time before the political landscape would be rocked once more. Almost 2 years since the national elections, a number of key positions remain unfulfilled and still in the hands of al-Maliki in what was supposedly a temporary basis.

Turkish anxiety has dramatically increased by unfolding events, leading Ankara to go back and forth between Baghdad and Washington in recent weeks and warning about the dangers of an Iraqi disintegration. Although Turkey may have chosen to ignore reality for a while, the writing has been on the Iraqi wall for decades and particularly these past 9 years.

There is no danger of Iraqi fragmentation. It is already fragmented and now it”s only question of just how far the disintegration will go and regional countries must accept that reality sooner or later. Democracy has been fraught with difficulty in Iraq with voting along heavy sectarian and ethnic lines. Voting has been almost akin to a de facto national census than a true national voice gathering exercise.

While Turkey and neighbouring countries seemingly worked to promote national harmony and reconciliation in Iraq, ironically they have been responsible for the entrenchment of camps in Iraq.

Successive Shiite governments have swayed heavily towards Tehran, whilst Sunni groups, essentially marginalised from power from their heyday under Saddam Hussein, have worked to force a hand at the political table through the threat of insurgency or through jockeying in the political chambers. Turkmen have used the big brother threat, calling on the support of Turkey to ensure their cards on the table are not ignored, while for the Kurds it has been a case of not letting the rest of Iraq drag the prosperous Kurdistan Region down with them and at the same time building strategic ties to boost their autonomous status and growing economic clout.

How regional sectarian influence continues to grip Iraq can be seen with al-Maliki”s persistent support of the much maligned and under fire Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

This week al-Iraqiya kept up their boycott of Iraq”s parliament and cabinet accusing al-Maliki of monopolising power and not abiding by the terms that led to the eventual breakthrough of the current coalition.

Accusations of the centralising of power by al-Maliki is hardly new, it was a frequent criticism throughout the last election term.

With the importance of upholding calm and dialogue seemingly at large, a national conference has been proposed that should be held sometime this month. A national conference may save the day in the short-term as did the Erbil agreement but true concord may prove elusive once more.

No amount of political manoeuvring at the end of the day can paper over deep mistrust and animosity.  Even if national elections were held early, the end game would be the same. There is no guarantee that Iraq would not end up at the same juncture after new elections are held whilst the key ingredients that continuously poison the political atmosphere remain.

As for now, it is unlikely that al-Maliki will relinquish his firm grip on power. While al-Maliki has been under intense domestic and regional spotlight, he may escape this current escapade largely unscathed. Al-Iraqiya have used the threat of boycott but with so many Sunni”s in their ranks badly scarred from the boycott campaigns of the previous campaigns, it is unclear just how far the loyalty of their MPs stretch.

The current political tension may have hurt al-Iraqiya further with 11 politicians already revoking their ties to the alliance.  Al-Iraqiya MPs are mindful that further boycotts or spotlight may see more positions of power been relinquished to the powerful Shiite alliance.

The biggest danger is a coalition without al-Iraqiya altogether where al-Maliki musters support from Kurds and al-Iraqiya dissidents, a scenario that would certainly place sectarian tensions into overdrive. The recent spate of initiatives towards autonomy by predominantly Sunni provinces is an indicator of growing Sunni fear that preservation of local power aside, the may be confound to a running battle to avoid been sidelined in Baghdad.

The Kurds, who have attempted to remain neutral, once again find themselves with all the aces. Only with Kurdish support could al-Iraqiya spearhead a new government and only with Kurdish support could al-Maliki be ousted from government.

Logic would dictate that after many failed promises by al-Maliki towards the Kurds, including the lack of implementation of the vast majority of conditions that he signed up to as a prelude to Kurdish support, the Kurds would side with al-Iraqiya. However, the new crisis and the key Kurdish role of calming tensions, gives the opportunity for the Kurds to preserve al-Maliki”s seat and the current coalition, but no doubt with much sterner warnings and conditions for the Shiite Alliance and al-Maliki.

The fact remains that all too often al-Maliki has boldly reneged on agreements with Kurds and has simply gotten away with it, even as the Kurds have saved al-Maliki”s political skin on more than occasion. The issue of disputed territories remains as open and pertinent as ever, Baghdad remains at loggerheads with the Kurds on oil sharing and Baghdad has been hardly provided a positive endorsement of growing Kurdish strategic clout and prosperity. It is time for the Kurds to use their aces wisely.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

U.S.withdrawal: End or beginning of Iraq?

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As the last convoy of US troops trickled over the desertous southern-Iraqi border, the move was met with contrasting emotions, much like the overall US experience little shy of 9 years.

For many in Iraq, the image of seeing their “occupiers” leave became a long-time nationalist dream.  Fast forward 9 years, 4500 lost lives and an expenditure fast approaching trillion dollar that has crippled the US foreign policy image and dented the US economy, the US were arguably as keen to leave as they were to enter.

Many placed direct blame on much of the unfolding crisis over the years in Iraq on America but as the future will prove the US is not responsible for every Iraqi misfortune and that perhaps America did well to stave off so many obstacles.

The downfall of Saddam and subsequent invasion of Iraq only opened a hornets nest, the nest was placated many decades before with the artificial creation of Iraq. The lid was simply held firm by the iron grip of Saddam and once opened, the Americans struggled relentlessly to keep grip whilst under immense international spotlight.

It is time for the Iraqi political actors to take accountability and responsibility for the current situation in Iraq. Iraq has had a sovereign government for many years, has now held two national elections, implemented a national constitution and has a large security force at its disposal that has been in practical control of the streets long before the US withdrawal.

History will prove that America never really got the credit it deserved. It made huge sacrifices whilst Iraqi politicians have constantly failed to deliver. It pulled Iraq from the brink of all-out sectarian war in 2007 with the promise of thousands of more troops as part of the surge strategy but the Iraqi leaders again failed to keep their promises and their end of the bargain.

It is by no means to say that the US adventure in Iraq should be marked as a shining glory. The two Washington administrations, particularly that of George W. Bush, will be the first to admit that Iraq was an achilles heel and in the case of Bush the hammer blow to the credibility of the his tenure. In hindsight, the US is more than likely to have done things differently and will have a bitter taste in their mouths as some events backfired.

However, as the old saying goes, you can take a horse to water but you cannot make it drink. Iraq has had many historical milestones and achievements but has successfully failed to capitalise on any positive motions created.

The bottom line is that deep sectarianism, a clear ethnic divide and above all profound historical mistrust and animosity have severely handicapped any chance of national reconciliation and genuine progression in Iraq.

As soon as the US forces formally withdrew, fierce debate ensued about the legacy that they left behind. One thing for sure is that the positive picture of the current climate in Iraq that the US was hoping to promote did not take long to shatter.

A day later, Iraq become embroiled in a new sectarian and political crisis as an arrest warrant was issued for Iraq”s Sunni Vice-President, Tariq al-Hashemi and a number of other Sunni figures, on terror related charges. This is in addition to controversy around Deputy Prime Minister Saleh al-Mutlak whose criticism of Maliki”s dictatorial tendencies left him clinging on to his position as Maliki sought a vote of no confidence against him.

People have warned about the fragility of the current coalition, however, the coalition has been anything but stable and harmonious since its much delayed inception. Over a year later and key ministries still remain in so-called temporary hands. Iyyad Allawi, the head of al-Iraqiya, has had an ongoing political rift and escalating war of words with Maliki accusing him of monopolisation of power and reneging on the Erbil agreement.

As the current crisis has escalated, an already bewildered al-Iraqiya decided to boycott parliament. Renew sectarian bloodshed coupled with a collapse of the current government may place Iraq in a point of no return and without a bail-out from the US this time around.

It is easy to overlook that Sunni Sahwa councils were a significant factor in the decline of violence and they still remain a localised Sunni tool rather than a national possession. Without a balanced security apparatus, Iraq will have three different armies guarding each of the major factions of Iraq.

The Sunni-Shiite power struggle is also exhibited in the increasing ploy of largely Sunni provinces to manipulate constitutional clauses and seek regional autonomy to place Maliki in a difficult bargaining corner and to safeguard their powerbases.

While much of Iraq has been stuck in a rut, Kurdistan has enjoyed unprecedented progression much to the regular dismay than applaud from Baghdad. More than any other group, the Kurds were most disappointed by the US exit and left them feeling anxious at hostile parties around them.

Renewed sectarianism and friction in Baghdad will see the Kurds embroiled in a fresh nightmare that will only blight the attraction and evolvement of the region. Furthermore, the Kurds have been so busy helping construct successive governments in Baghdad and then help papering over the cracks that they have seemingly overlooked that Baghdad has seldom kept their end of the bargain and has gotten away without any real political repercussions.

Kurdistan has waited for almost a decade for the return of Kirkuk and disputed territories and has waited many years for key laws such as a national hydrocarbon law to be adopted. In reality, unless Kurdistan takes matters into their own hands and pushes Baghdad in no uncertain terms, they will wait yet another decade for the return of their lands.

As kingmakers, Kurds have taken a tough-line position in negotiations over successive government formations, while Baghdad has dragged their heels in the commitments they have agreed to as part of the initial wooing of Kurdish blocs.

Just as the jostling of power between Sunni and Shiites will come to the boil at some point, especially if the proviso of parliament and politics is seen as an insufficient forum, then the increasing bitter relationship between Erbil and Baghdad will take similar suit if it indefinitely becomes stuck in a detrimental cycle.

While much of how the proceedings play out is in the hands of the Iraqi leaders, the difficulties already inherent are only exasperated by the influence of neighbouring countries. As the US formally withdraws, the battle for influence in Iraq will only heighten.

The Shiite-led government of al-Maliki openly sways towards Tehran and has defended the Allawite and fellow Shiite Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad, while most of the Arab world has turned increasingly against him. All the while, Sunni neighbours such as Jordan and Saudi Arabia looks anxiously at the alliances formed by Baghdad.

As the Middle East has evolved greatly as a result of the Arab Spring, Iraq will need to greatly alter the relations with its neighbours.

At the same time, Kurdistan which is already under great constraints due to the weary eye of its neighbours, strives for good relations with all sides and must not rely on the sentiments of Baghdad in achieving its nationalist ambitions.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

Another political fallout in Kurdistan at a time when need for unity greatest

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Just when an aurora of calm and stability was returning to Kurdistan following the several weeks of riots that were instigated earlier this year in Sulaimanyia, turmoil, tension and anger returned to the scene once again in Kurdistan.

The riots over the past week, which started when a large number of liquor stores, massage parlors and other venues deemed un-religious, were set on fire after Friday prayers, quickly spread across the Duhok region.

The much unfortunate attacks on such shops and massage parlors, seemingly a direct attack on the Kurdish Christian and Yezidi community, were followed by tit-for-tit reprisal attacks by other group of rioters where a number of buildings of Kurdistan Islamist Union (KIU) and some media offices were set on fire.

In a repeat of heightened tensions that ensued in February of this year in the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) stronghold in the east of the Kurdistan Region with Gorran at the center of the political and social exchanges, this time it was the west of the Region and the stronghold of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the KIU at the heart of the controversies.

Either way, such events prove the sensitivity of the Kurdistan Region and how polarised Kurdistan continues to be along mainly political but also sectarian lines.

Tensions always escalate rapidly with a culture of a blame game and media war taking precedence. Accusatory fingers by either side or attacks on their credibility via the media simply add great fuel to the fire in a region renowned for passion and strong emotions when it comes to political affiliations and nationalism.

In truth, such events much like those in February can never be judged merely on the surface of affairs. In practice, there is a series of underhand reasoning”s, probabilities and intentions that have been used to spark a downward spiral of relations.

Was it the KIU that encouraged violence in the first place on dozens of shops and other outlets in Zakho, was it the KDP that was responsible for the burning of KIU buildings, was it the KDP that was responsible for any crackdown of rioters? Was it actually a member of KIU that intended to greatly harm the images of both KIU itself and the KDP for certain gain? Or was it actually someone from the KDP who intended to harm the image of both sides?

Could such attacks have been perpetrated by Islamist groups in the greater Iraq with influence on elements in the region?

It was widely alleged that emotions on Friday were heightened by fiery sermons in Zakho with the KRG in particular blaming a particular Imam with alleged ties to KIU.

As always the questions pondered rage unanswered with the obsession of finding a side to blame taking significance. Rather than singling out the minority elements of each party in such episodes, the blame is quickly shifted to the whole party and the whole government.

What is clear is that while the attacks on so-called western icons in Zakho may seem to have a religious grounding, in reality the fundamental undertones are political.

These liqueur stores or the like did not appear overnight in Zakho or in the Kurdistan Region. They have been there for years that have encompassed various events of political turmoil, so why now?

The region is renowned for its religious and ethnic tolerance and it”s embracing of pluralism and indeed the KIU and other Islamist-rooted parties would be hard-pressed not to agree that that is one element of the Kurdish landscape that has received a lot of positive light from Western powers, in a greater region hardly renowned for its tolerance or pluralism.

There is no smoke without fire and all signs to point a pre-mediated set of events. It”s hard to believe that events in Zakho and subsequent incidents were simply spontaneous in nature.

Such is the level of passion that political parties and protesters almost expect harsh reprisal actions following initial violent attacks. It is almost a case of goading of sentiments, with key elements taking full advantage of the emotive and political polarisation that appears at such turns.

Tensions between the KIU and KDP is not new, you only need to go back to 2005 when small group of supporters attacked their buildings, with the KDP later compensating families of victims and renovating KIU buildings. With the Duhok province a longtime stronghold of the KDP, with the KDP weeks away from assuming the premiership a further time and with the much anticipated provincial elections around the corner, these stirring of tensions, blame games and media war allows early points to be scored.

Although the relations between the ruling parties and opposition groups have calmed significantly, there has been a lack of real reconciliation, dialogue and concord. Aside from KIU statements this week against the KDP, all opposition parties still have somewhat of a bitter taste in their mouths.

In this light, it was hardly surprising when it was announced this week that opposition groups had refused to take part in proposed multi-party talks, with Gorran stating their solidarity with the KIU “for the oppression they were subjected to”.

Kurdistan Region President, Massaud Barzani, promised a full investigation of the incidents and vowed to hold any perpetrator to account regardless of political affiliation.

Indeed, this is not about the KIU, KDP or any other political party. This is about preserving the interests of Kurdistan and preserving the interests of the people who ultimately vote for these parties. Injustice has the same connotations no matter the background and any wrong doing, criminal attacks or violent reprisals must be fully accounted for no matter who the guilty party turns out to be.

The most unfortunate casualty of this setback is the media. The media becomes a default target where emotions are channeled. Journalists, media outlets and freedom of speech must be protected as a symbol of our society. However, by the same token this does give the media, especially those owned by the political parties, the right to enflame tensions, spread false accusations or mislead viewers.

KDP has issues statements expecting the KIU to end the media war it believe was instigated again the KDP. The media war in Kurdistan is perhaps the greatest poison of such riots. The Committee to Protect Journalists and Reports Without Borders quickly condemned all political factions for the targeting of the media.

Other opposition parties should be a part of reconciliation in such circumstances, after all they are still an accountable part of the political interests of Kurdistan. However, all too often such events and deepening of wounds is manipulated to serve political interests, not the interests of the Region.

These events also clearly demonstrate that real soothing of political and social tension never happened after the February violence. The KRG must continue their investigation of the events earlier this year, rapidly conduct investigation via a formal committee on the latest riots and proceed with the positive reform that was announced.

As Kurdistan attracts more and more foreign interest, more foreign consuls are opened and further portals to the outside world are created, it conversely draws attention more quickly.

Kurdistan needs unity more than ever, with key disputes in Baghdad as tense as ever, with Kurdistan surrounded by hostile partners and with the stability of the Region at stake. Within the region itself, finger pointing and media wars may tarnish individual parties, to the outside world all of Kurdistan becomes tarnished.

The Yezidi and Christian communities have been a heralded icon of Kurdish society for thousands of years. For hundreds of years they have lived with fellow Muslims and under Islamist empires. Are they really the source of problem in Kurdistan all of a sudden? The Yezidi and Christian community calls for protection must be heeded and the notion of tolerance in Kurdistan must be reinforced.

Christian and various other sects in the south of Iraq have flocked to the region for safety where they have been embraced as brothers. This is a proud achievement for Kurdistan that has not gone unnoticed even in the Vatican.

The onus is on both the KIU, KDP and KRG to put this issue aside, investigate fully and protects the interests and unity of Kurdistan at all costs.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

Interview with British Consul General Chris Bowers

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There are huge opportunities, people should come and explore it for themselves because they will find a real welcome here and find a region that is on a dash for modernity” – Chris Bowers

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel of the Kurdish Globe spoke with the British Consul General to Kurdistan, Chris Bowers, on the historic relationship between the Kurds and UK, the ever developing economic ties between the UK and Kurdistan, Kurdistan”s new strategic role within the Middle East and future relations between the UK and Kurdistan amongst a number of other local and regional issues.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – First of all, thank you very much for your time with the Globe. Let us start with how do you view the current relationship between KRG and the UK government?

Chris Bowers - Great. We are in a really good phase at the moment. You would expect me to say that but it is actually true. We have enjoyed very close working relationship with the KRG. I think it is a very warm relationship and that warmth enables us to speak clearly and openly I”m delighted that recently we have really improved the commercial element – 70 British firms in the Erbil Trade Fair is a fantastic result. And that now shows that people and businesses in the UK see Kurdistan as a place to do business and I think that says a lot for Kurdistan, says a lot for the KRG and specifically says a lot about the activities of KRG”s representative in London who I believe has done a fantastic job.

One thing that is really going to change the economic relationship between the UK and Kurdistan is the huger merger between Genel and Tony Hayward”s investment vehicle, that has now launched as a FTSE100 company which will mean that all the analysts in London covering the pension funds, the investment funds, the tracker funds and the like will all have to know about the Kurdistan Region.

A year or so ago, you could be an analyst in the city and not need to know about the Kurdistan Region. That has now changed and that is a very big development.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – The Kurds have a deep affection with the UK that began with its role in the creation of the 1991 safe haven, for Kurds anxious about their future fate based on their past, how does the UK government reassure them about an ongoing partnership and relationship going forward?

Chris Bowers - Well, I think the best defence for the Kurds is that the KRG continues to be a prosperous, effective and democratic region. That is the best defence. Also the region has relations with Baghdad that have in the past been difficult and I think it is never going to be the easiest of relationships but I think it”s a relationship that can work and the Kurdistan Region needs to do what it can to make it work. So these are the key factors in terms of security for the Kurds and of course relations with their neighbors.

The relations with Turkey have been very good recently and we are delighted about that.  We see ourselves as one of Turkey”s biggest supporters and friends – obviously Iran is another kettle of fish. We see a growing number of commercial ties between the Kurdistan Region and the UK.  . One of the best things for the future is also the higher education links. We have had a very successful outreach with the Kurdistan Region and with the Kurdish people and Kurdish students. I think now the Kurdish students who are thinking about where they should study abroad under the Human Capacity Development Programme think about UK as a first choice destination, and we are thrilled about that. My ambassador stated when we were starting to assist the programme, that if we cannot help educate the next generation of Kurdish leaders then we should go home. Well, we are still here!.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – As someone with oversight of the Middle East and Iraq, what role do you see Kurdistan playing in Iraq and the greater Middle East moving forward?

We see the Kurdistan Region as a place where Iraq can road test initiatives. The Kurdistan Region is in the fortunate position of being more stable and secure. I think it is more committed to market economy and has a clear vision for the future. If you were living in the rest of Iraq, say you are a governor and you want to know how you can build an airport,   how you can attract  businesses, how can you provide a safe environment, how you can provide an accountable government – where would you go to learn that? You would come to Kurdistan. So that”s a tremendous asset to the whole of Iraq, and it is something which the government here can promote. I believe it is a very important role. It”s really noticeable as well that this is a part of the world that has a great commitment to tolerance.  That is another important lesson for the whole region.  If you look at the broader region there are not that many countries in the Arab world in the Middle East which have a functioning federal structure. Arab states have tended to be unitary and centralized and if Iraq can show how an effective functioning federal system can work then that is a great message for the whole region. Of course a federal structure implies a relationship which is why we think the relationship between Baghdad and Kurdistan is so important.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Taking that a step forward, people mention Kurdistan but for the Kurdish people Kurdistan geographically stretches a lot further. In terms of its role as a partner to Iran and Turkey and as a major nationality in the region, do you see it as a strategic power?

The best role and function for the Kurdistan Region is to make the region as effective, successful and prosperous as possible. To create a beacon is the best support for the Iraqi Kurdish people and I think this is exactly what the government and the Kurdish people are trying to do.

As for neighboring states have their own policies and their own functions.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – One thing we have seen in the PKK and PJAK struggle, that there is now a notion that the KRG can play a mediator role whereas before Tehran and Ankara were quick to say “you are the problem”. Do you believe the KRG can be the solution providers in the internal affairs of these countries?

Firstly, the PKK is a terrorist organisation. It is classified as such by the UK and EU.  We call upon the PKK to lay down their arms. The leadership in this region thinks the era of fighting is over, that it is now a time for discussion and negotiation and I think that is very true. The government here has done a great job in reaching out to Turkey and making a clear distinction between the PKK and the KRG. I think that is a vital distinction and my sense is that the Turkish leadership now understood that and that is a huge progress which is to the credit of both governments.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – What is your view of the Arab Spring and the ever-changing sociopolitical dynamic in the Middle East that even today is raging in Syria?

Where we see people demanding their rights this is hugely positive. It seems that we are still part way through the process of the Arab spring. Of course we support people”s struggle for greater accountability. That is what we hear – people want governments that are accountable and effective, governments that really speak for ordinary people. That is a tremendous thing. Wherever possible, we would like to see this happen in a peaceful basis. As you know, the UK and EU have been very clear in their belief that it is the time for Assad to go and we are sticking by that position.  The sanctions in place reflect the seriousness with which the international community sees the situation in Syria.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Recently the 7th Erbil Trade Fair took place, what was your general overview of this?

It was great – a tremendous event. I”m thrilled by the UK participation in the fair with 70 companies and you know there were more people, more businessmen on the delegation which came to Erbil than went with the last delegation to China. Why was that? Mainly because of the opportunities here and the pro-business climate the KRG has created here.  Erbil is a City of Possibilities in a Region of Opportunity. There has been a lot of hard work that has gone into that, a lot of hard work from the KRG representative in London, from the MEA and from our side as well.  And, of course, getting them here is half of the story, the response they got from Kurdish companies was very warm and the buzz around the delegation was very encouraging and very positive.  Many companies said that they had lots of positive meetings, lots of contacts and even some signed contracts. Like any business, they now need to follow up these leads and make sure that they really get the benefits. The trade fair provides the platform for people to meet other people and opportunity to make those contacts and in that sense from a UK perspective it was an absolutely great event.

We were in particular pleased with the Northern Ireland element – there is a real synergy between Northern Ireland and the Kurdistan Region. Both are former areas of conflict that are now emerging with a new dynamism and new commitment to engage with the outside world. Both are conscious that because their image in the international scene has been one of conflict, the regions have to make extra effort and go the extra mile to convince people to do business with them.

Bashdar Push Ismaeel – Looking at foreign companies that have taken the plunge or risk, there are a number of British based companies such Gulf Keystone Petroleum, Heritage Oil and Sterling Energy. What is your view?

Right now, UK companies are managing 12 blocs making us a leading hydrocarbon partner for the KRG and we are delighted by that. In the last six months UK oil companies have invested something like 3 billion US dollars into the Kurdistan Region. That is a really significant vote of confidence in the Kurdistan Region.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – With the huge success of the so-called minors, is the time ripe for major oil players such as BP and Shell to enter the fold?

What is becoming clear is that we are entering a new phase in the development of Kurdish hydrocarbon development and I imagine that there will be further consolidation in the markets in the next year. The significant reserves here are going to attract any major company and the companies can speak for themselves but of course assets that like that are interesting. What I would to say about UK companies is that when they come in, they come for 40 years which is their general investment timescale.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – If you had a message for potential foreign investors everywhere who may still be unsure or tentative regarding Kurdistan, what would you say to them?

Come and take a look. There are real opportunities here; there is a premium to being British. There are huge opportunities, people should come and explore it for themselves because they will find a real welcome here and find a region that is on a dash for modernity, it”s a region wants to catch up for the time it has lost and a region which is committed to developing its international engagements and that is very positive.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – The historic British Film Festival in Kurdistan was intriguing and exciting to say the least, tell us more.

Chris Bowers - We were thrilled by the success of the British Film Festival in the Kurdistan Region, the first of its type. We showed 15 films from the 26th to 28th November at the Saad Palace with free entry, open to all. We even had a 100 metre red carpet and popcorn!  It felt like a real film experience.  Why did we do? Firstly, because they are great films and we wanted people to see Britain through the eyes of film-makers. The films were entertaining and watching films is a fun and sociable part of life. Secondly, it shows the profile of Erbil, that it is the kind of city where you can hold a film festival. This will help change people”s perceptions internationally and shows people that Kurdistan has a secure environment where people can go out on the streets and watch a film festival. Thirdly, we brought British film makers over to speak to young Kurdish film makers because the Kurdistan Region”s story has not been told yet and it can be told through film. It is partially about identity and telling the world your story.  We want to see a new generation of Iraqi Kurdish film-makers showing their films in KR and in international festivals around the world.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

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KRG Foreign Relations Minister answers questions on key developments

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Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel of the Kurdish Globe spoke with KRG Minister Falah Mustafa Bakir – Head of the Department of Foreign Relations on a number of issues.

At a critical juncture in the Middle East, internally within Iraq and also in the context of global relations, the topic of KRG relations with its neighbours, its partners in Iraq and within the wider community takes ever greater significance.

The interview intended to gauge a number of critical factors affecting foreign relations and the Kurdistan Region”s onward strategic advancement on political, social and economic levels.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – First of all Kak Falah, thank you very much for your time with the Kurdish Globe. We have a few questions we would like to cover that encompass local and regional news, events and key political developments.

Perhaps, the first and best place to start for the Kurdish Region is its relations with neighbouring countries, specifically President Massoud Barzani”s recent visits to Tehran and Istanbul. What is your view of the current state of relations between the Kurdistan Region and both respective countries?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – You are welcome for the time, and thank you for the opportunity to shed some light on these issues. I believe that this is an important moment in our history and thus relations with neighbouring countries and the international community are essential for us. As you have mentioned, we have always wanted relations based on mutual trust, mutual respect and mutual understanding. And also to have the kind of relationships that are mutually beneficial for both sides.

As you know, President Barzani has just visited the Islamic Republic of Iran and the Republic of Turkey, and these visits underpin our belief that relations with our neighbours are very important for us. We have been able to make significant progress in our relations in recent years, and these relations will benefit this Region in terms of stability, security, economic development and overall prosperity.

As the president says, this kind of interaction and direct communication is a top priority for us so that our neighbours understand where we stand, what we stand for and what we want. By the same token, it is essential that we maintain an understanding of what our neighbours want, what kind of relationship they want and where they stand on key issues.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – As the centre of Kurdish nationalism and a landmark in Kurdish history, do you believe that the KRG can act as the key to peace in both Tehran and Ankara with regards to their respective Kurdish populations?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – We have always stated very clearly that we support and sympathise with the rights of the Kurdish people wherever they may live and have always encouraged them to find peaceful and democratic solutions to problems with the governments in their respective countries so that they could obtain a prosperous and bright future.

Our people have suffered a great deal; we have witnessed tragedies, oppression, denial and deprivation. It is time to enjoy a better future. We want to make clear that we abide by international law, and we are fully in favour of good neighbourly relations based on non-interference in the internal affairs of sovereign countries. We are committed to this principle as well as to the respect, integrity and unity of each country. We desire relations that are based on respect, understanding and dialogue that will enhance the peace, stability and security of both sides. We understand that it is normal to have differences but at the same time we have a lot of common goals; thus, we try to focus on such commonalities so that through dialogue we can ease the tension, solve problems, and address the issues.

As the President said while we were in Turkey two weeks ago, the Kurdistan Region is prepared to fully cooperate and support any peaceful efforts to resolve the issues between our neighbouring governments and their respective Kurdish citizens. However, we will not endorse any plans that involve violence and conflict.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – In that regard, not necessarily just within Iraq but in the wider region and beyond, are people increasingly seeing Kurdistan as a strategic power in its own right?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – The Kurdistan Region has to be taken for the values it stands for, for its key strengths and also for its resources, including both human and natural resources.  It has to be taken for the principles it stands for including tolerance, liberalism and democracy, where we not only believe in talking about of such values but also in actively practicing them.

We share the values of western democracies, the respect of human rights, individual and public freedoms, freedom of the media, rule of law, and an active and vibrant participation of civil society. These are the values and principles we stand for, and I believe those who visit the region and have a first-hand experience of it are greatly impressed by the progress we have made, particularly considering  the troubled area in which we live. There are many problems, and we are surrounded by conflict, but we have been able to make significant progress in spite of these constraints.

Therefore, I believe we could be a key factor in helping to solve and address problems in the wider region as well.  Through supporting and promoting tolerance, including political tolerance, religious tolerance and ethnic and cultural tolerance, we can stand as an example that democracy can work in this region. In addition, our commitment to the role of women in public and private life, to the empowerment of women, to benefitting from their special contribution and from that of the youth, we can serve as an example to others. As a society, and also as a government, these are areas that are of paramount importance to us.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Taking that concept a step forward, with the Arab Spring that has arrived this year, many have realised the sway and velocity of people power that is still on-going specifically in Syria, what is your view of the Arab Spring and how it can benefit the Kurdish populations all over?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – In fact, it is easy to forget that the Kurdish Spring started much earlier, over two decades ago. We welcome this wave of uprisings because we believe at the end of the day, it has to be the people in these countries that determine their own future and decide on the system of governance that they will live under. We welcome democratic alternatives to the current regimes in power and we believe that everybody will be better off by having a democratic Middle East and North Africa.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – If the uprisings turned violent and the regimes go down fighting as we witnessed in Libya and now in Syria where the Kurdish population is directly affected by a harsh government crackdown, what is the stance of the KRG?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – History has proved that no ultimate solution can be achieved through weapons and military means. The only way problems can be truly resolved is through dialogue and negotiations, and through peaceful, democratic means. I believe in certain cases, such as Syria, when it passes the point of no return, the regime in Syria will have to accept this reality. It is a clear sign of weakness when the only means of sustaining power is through the use of force, and whenever even this fails, then there truly must be a change. History has shown that it is only a matter of time before an oppressed people will rise up and demand that their natural rights are respected.

Therefore it is important for the governments around us, those still not under democratic systems to know that the time of totalitarian based regimes is over. At the end of the day it is the people who lie at the source of countries prosperity and its future direction. So In the case of Kurdistan that has produced two generations who have now lived in democracy and freedom, it would now be impossible for them to live under a dictatorship again.

I believe that as time passes, people will also realise more and more that Iraq was in a unique position having its spring in 2003, while the Arab Spring started much later. I believe the Middle East region is on the right track towards a new brighter future, but the concern now is ensuring that these revolutionary waves lead to the establishment of democratic alternatives in order to promote the interests of the people, to generate equality, justice, distribution of power and wealth, and at the end of the day, to allow people to live better lives.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel - The use of force obviously works both ways. One is the use of force by the government on the people and the other is the use of force by the people against the government as in the case with both PJAK and PKK that seeking greater rights. With the positive statement from both President Barzani and also Tehran regarding the end of the issue with the PJAK, do you feel that peace can really be achieved after decades of conflict and social turmoil?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – It is important to clarify that the KRG is not part of the problems in neighbouring countries as both the PKK issue in Turkey and the PJAK issue in Iran are internal issues. However, at the same time, we do realise that these groups are present at the border areas of Kurdistan region and we want to help, as much as we can, to find peaceful solutions to these issues. If our assistance is desired, then we are ready to do whatever we can, for the sake of a peaceful and democratic solution to these problems.

We believe that the time has come for governments and political organisations to understand that there is a lot that can be achieved through peace and dialogue. History has proved the limitations of military confrontation through the experiences of the IRA, PLO and others. If fighting continues then the end result is only more bloodshed. At one point you have to say, enough is enough, let”s try another way. These problems should have been solved earlier. Force has been used by both sides. Even here in the Kurdistan Region, force was used against the Iraqi regime and the Iraqi government used tools of destruction, chemical weapons, the Anfal campaign and all kinds of weapons, but they were not able to annihilate the Kurdish people, they were not able to solve the problems. With the uprising of 1991, we were able to free our region from the dictatorial regime that was in power.

In Turkey, where there are democratic elections, parliaments and elected Kurdish politicians, the best way is to fight for rights within parliament, using democratic tools and using peaceful means including the media and civil society. There is a lot that can be achieved through peaceful means, and killing will never bring about a solution.

Since the PJAK and the Islamic Republic of Iran have agreed to stop fighting, all parties now have a chance to focus their energy on initiatives that can achieve long-term peace, stability, economic growth, investment, job opportunities etc.

These problems are of a political nature, they”re not militaristic problems. Cultural activities, artistic development projects, economic activities, commercial activities, are all factors that can help bring about solutions, so it”s not just about weapons being used.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Therefore, the underlying message is that for that elusive peace to be achieved, it will take both sides to reach out a hand. Turkey to listen and reach out a hand to the Kurds and for the Kurds to embrace Ankara.

Falah Mustafa Bakir – The Turkish government, with the onset of democratic initiatives and the courageous steps that have been taken by Prime Minister Erdogan in order to address these problems have all shown their desire to reach out. However, we have to be realistic and appreciate that this process will not happen overnight; it takes time, it takes patience, perseverance, hard work and mutual trust. Confidence must be built so that both sides can trust each other.

What”s important for us is that the relations between the Kurdistan Region and Turkey remain strong. Turkey, as an important neighbour, wants to have a key role in Iraq. We can be a gateway for Turkey”s economic interests, commercial activities, investment, and cultural exchange programs in Iraq, so there is a lot of room for cooperation and understanding. I believe that with the right policies and understanding at the leadership level, we will be able to make progress on both sides. The facts that the Turkish Consulate General is active in Erbil, that the largest proportion of international companies in the Region (about 900 or so) are Turkish and that Turkish banks, schools and universities have been established in the region all speak volumes. We want to build on our common ground and further encourage this business and cultural exchange.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – Perhaps those external relations can only be driven that much stronger, with strong relations internally with Baghdad. The Kurds are part of a coalition government in Baghdad that many describe as fragile or tentative and with the withdrawal of US forces at the end of the year to compound matters. What is your view on the current state of relations and will it be a factor for reconciliation or further feuds after the US withdrawal?

Falah Mustafa Bakir – We want Baghdad to look realistically at the current situation. If Baghdad thinks time is in their interest or if they have no political will to solve problems, we will never solve any problems or achieve any semblance of a stable, secure and prosperous Iraq. Iraq is a rich country, but this richness is no guarantee to a bright future if there is an absence of right polices.

What we need in Baghdad is a visionary leadership working for a better future, with commitment to that future and the political will to solve problems. Baghdad does not have a firm understanding of some key facts. The Kurds are the second largest nationality in Iraq. We are not guests and we will no longer submit to being repressed, oppressed and treated as second class citizens. The Iraq constitution even before the fall of the regime was clear that Iraq is comprised of two nationalities, Kurds and Arabs. Arabic and Kurdish are the two official languages of the country.

We have all the characteristics of a state including people, land, language, history, civilisation and culture of our own. The only reason we don”t have a state of our own is due to political complications and past injustices. Since we are determined to work for a better future for our people, we have committed ourselves to a federal, plural and democratic Iraq. An Iraq that lives in peace with its own communities and its neighbours. An Iraq where all are equal, an Iraq that works for peaceful and long lasting solutions. We have confidence in ourselves, trust in our leadership and trust in our people, and we know that the future is in our own hands. But we want a peaceful and long-lasting relationship with the rest of Iraq.

Therefore we have been patient, flexible and endured a lot, but it is time for Baghdad to play their part in keeping a peaceful and united Iraq. The moment Baghdad is ready and willing, these problems can be solved. These are not unsolvable issues.

The underlying political problems in Iraq have to be resolved as well as economic problems before the situation can change for the better. Because there are a lot of possible hazards on the table (the Sunni-Shiite disputes, ethnic struggles, economic and political challenges and external threats), Baghdad must find the will to solve problems in new ways rather than trying to use the commonly accepted methods of the past. If Baghdad abides by the constitution, has enough political will and understanding then Iraq can remain on the right track, but there has to be common acknowledgement that only dialogue and understanding can resolve any problems.

Bashdar Pusho Ismaeel – It seems to me that withdrawal of US forces may not change a great deal of the political landscape. The common Iraqi problems were there and will be there regardless of US forces, so really the onus is on Baghdad.

Falah Mustafa Bakir – The security mechanisms and the balance of power will change. Although we have the UN, and we believe they need to be heavily engaged in supporting political issues in Iraq by aiding, advising and helping to seek solutions, we strongly welcome the EU to be more present. We encourage greater participation and assistance by more EU member states and we encourage other Arab countries to have a greater presence in Iraq, and of course, when I say Iraq, I mean they also need to be present in the Kurdistan Region. The EU should have an office here, Arab countries should open their consulates as we need to be part of whatever goes on in Iraq as a whole. There are potential threats and problems that include both domestic and external factors, so as Iraqis we need to put aside our differences, be open with each other, and work with each other so we can have a better future.

We are a people that have suffered a lot, but we are not captives of our own history. We are a forward looking nation that wants to secure a better future for our people, but this cannot happen overnight, nor can it happen without external assistance. We need the support of the international community, we need to have a democratic system in Iraq, and we need people to understand that.

People in the rest of Iraq are not doing us a favour by trying to solve problems apart from the federal constitution. There are commitments, there are political agreements and there are issues that are enshrined in our constitution. Identity is an important thing for us, and we will not allow anybody to take our identity from us. We refused to surrender to the will of Saddam Hussein, and we will certainly not surrender to any similar dictatorial regimes that may come after his.

Kurdish identity has to be respected. People in this region have to feel that they are equal citizens of Iraq and that they are free to enjoy their full rights within this country. We are a model and a success story with a vibrant economy where the growth rate is over 8% per year, GDP per capita is over $5000 a year. There is political maturity, a vibrant civil society and institutions, and day after day the region makes progress as it works with the outside world.  We are what we are because of the values we stand for. We believe in equality, justice and tolerance. We are proud that there are over 20 foreign representations in the region, which have benefited from their presence politically, economically and culturally. The KRG is constantly reaching out to international partners, and we are actively looking to bolster foreign representations in this region. Currently we have 12 KRG representations abroad and hoping to actively increase these also, as they are an essential means of encouraging people, businesses, universities and institutions to grow in Kurdistan.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

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As the “last great oil frontier”, the battle between Kurdistan and Iraq continues apace

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One of the main topics of contention between the KRG and Baghdad has been agreement on a national hydrocarbon law, format of oil sharing and specifically the ownership and jurisdiction of huge oil discoveries in the Kurdistan Region.

As the number of oil companies flocking to the region has steadily grown in recent years so has the general anger and animosity from Baghdad. However, with hopes of reaching a breakthrough on the elusive national hydrocarbon law dashed earlier this year were a draft oil and gas law was rejected in parliament, the Kurds have continued the development of their region and in particular their oil sector at speed.

Whilst major oil giants have stayed out of the Kurdistan scene for fear of upsetting Baghdad and potentially losing a greater slice of the cake further south, things took an unexpected and historic turn this week with the announcement that oil giant Exxon Mobil had signed a milestone oil contract with the Kurdistan Region to explore six fields in the region.

Dubbed as the “last major oil frontier”, the broad global interest and world class oil discoveries has put Kurdistan firmly on the map, however, the region as well as the smaller players have been eagerly awaiting the entry of the big actors that will undoubtedly change the tide.

The oil giants may have stepped aside and let the minors run the show in Kurdistan to date but it has become increasingly evident that as time passes by and with little sign of a breakthrough in the ratification of a commonly accepted oil law, those who linger in the background will lose out greatly in the long run. As the widely acknowledged last frontier, oil companies must arrive first or arrive too late.

The deal with Exxon Mobil may have been drawn on an economic basis but certainly the political ramifications echo a lot louder. In the short-term it makes reconciliation with Baghdad that much more difficult but ultimately as oil giants wane into the equation, finding resolutions with Kurdistan have to be taken a lot more seriously and Baghdad will have no choice but seek concord.

Almost inevitably the deal sparked immediate condemnation from Baghdad, with Deputy Prime Minister for Energy Affairs Hussein al-Shahristani, a long-time nemesis of the Kurdish position on oil, giving Exxon Mobil the choice to either work on the West Qurna fields in the south or on the fields in Kurdistan whilst deeming such contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) as illegal. “Exxon has violated the ministry directions and instructions concerning the companies working in Kurdistan,” said Abdul-Mahdy al-Ameedi, director of the oil ministry”s contracts and licensing directorate.

However, the greater significance is Exxon Mobil”s choice in essentially siding with Kurdistan. They knew very well what Baghdad”s response was likely to be having been warned a number of times during the negotiations with the KRG and the fact they risked their involvement in the development of the 8.7-billion-barrel West Qurna Phase One oil field in the south speaks volumes. They knew the consequence in drawing the wrath of Baghdad but still saw a stronger attraction to Kurdistan.

According to sources, Washington had warned Exxon Mobil”s about the risks of striking any deal with the KRG amidst a backdrop of hostility from Baghdad. In reality, such a deal would not have been possible without the consent of the US government. As oil giants are made to take difficult positions in ongoing friction between Baghdad and Erbil, increasingly global powers such as America would also need to take a position on the matter one way or another. Either way, standing on the side-lines politically or economically as the years ensue and progress is protracted at best in Iraq will serve no side.

As the feuds continue between Baghdad and Erbil, unless Baghdad can finally find a long-term resolution, more and more firms will have to choose between Kurdistan and Iraq. In this manner, the issue is not over Kurds of Iraq or over a federal region of Iraq but almost between two states – Kurdistan and Iraq.

With the discovery of huge oil reserves in recent years, the region is beginning to realise its much anticipated potential. With reserves of up to 45billion barrels of oil and a booming infrastructure, Kurdistan is becoming a force within its own right, with or without Baghdad.

Ironically, Shahristani is no longer the Iraqi Oil Minister but has continued to maintain a hard-line on Kurdistan oil projects on what has become more of a personal battle than a federal power management dispute. A key condition for the Kurdish support for the current Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki”s coalition was a ratification of oil contracts signed by the KRG with dozens of oil firms. Although, exports have resumed, it is by no means at the capacity that Kurdistan can produce and frosty relations have continued with disputes over payments to foreign firms under PSC agreements blighting any short-term gains.

At the same time as the announcement of the Exxon Mobil deal, KRG Oil Minister Ashti Hawrami confirmed that they were in talks with another two major oil companies which would bolster the region further.

However, on the back of the major fallout surrounding the Exxon Mobil deal, it was reported that Royal Dutch Shell Plc, who were rumoured to have strong interest in the Kurdistan Region, had decided to pull out of oil exploration and development talks with the KRG. This was clearly a ploy to protect its lucrative investments in southern Iraq much to the disappointment of the Kurds.

Either way, even if no other oil giants join the Kurdistan arena in the foreseeable future, a major taboo has been broken. Baghdad”s continued stance towards deals brokered by the KRG and its seemingly lack of enthusiasm to see KRG prosper ahead of the rest if Iraq, places the already fragile coalition in Baghdad into further doubt.

As Kurds become increasingly disillusioned with Baghdad over oil disputes and territorial disputes that shows no signs of progress, they are more likely than ever to take matters into their hands. As witnessed with Exxon Mobil and encouraging diplomatic support from abroad in the stand-off with Baghdad, other entities will increasingly support Kurdistan in its strategic goals and the fulfilment of its immense potential.

Tony Hayward, the former chief executive of BP and now the head of Genel Energy, voiced his support for the deal while the UK government simultaneously waned into the dispute. Michael Aron, the UK ambassador to Iraq, urged both parties to resolve longtime differences and end the heightened uncertainty for those signing contracts in Kurdistan.

Many expect a continuation of mergers and consolidation of the oil sector in Kurdistan. As oil minors make increasingly lucrative discoveries, the chances of them combining to become majors will become an increasing reality. Just this week Norway”s DNO announced it was open to partnerships, with Turkey”s Genel Enerji touted as a potential partner.

The Kurdistan Blocs Coalition (KBC) in the Iraqi parliament strongly criticised Shahristani”s stance on the oil deal with Exxon Mobil, while the KRG were quick to point out that the deal was good for all of Iraq.

After all, if Baghdad truly sees the Kurds as partners and the Kurdistan Region as an integral component of Iraq, then why should the prosperity and advancement of Kurdistan be such an issue for Baghdad?

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

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The growing strategic role of the KRG in the region

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Once considered the “problem” of the Kurdish nationalist struggles in Turkey and Iran, the KRG is now a ray of hope for peace and mediation

As a major Turkish military incursion into Kurdistan slowly wanes in the aftermath of the fierce national backlash that resulted from the deadliest PKK attack since 1993, attention needs to urgently move towards a long-term solution to Kurdish struggle in Turkey.

The continuous cycle of PKK attacks met by the military might of Turkey has been raging for decades with no clear end-game in sight. Unless Turkey makes serious diplomatic overtures and the PKK shows real intent to lay down their arms the prospect of peace will be as distant as ever.

The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) has found itself in the cross-fire between PKK and PJAK on one side and Turkey and Iran on the other over the years. Too often in the past the Turkish and Iranian governments have been quick to label the Kurdistan Region as the “problem”, even though the true foundations of their struggles were laid at home.

Increasingly there is now growing appreciation and recognition of the KRG as the fulcrum of any potential resolution and the facilitator of peace. As the official Kurdish representation in the region and with growing economical, strategic and strategic clout, the Kurdistan Region has become the hub of the Kurdish renaissance everywhere and indeed become a real interlocutor of the Kurdish nationalist struggles in Turkey, Iran and Syria.

This week Kurdistan Region president Massoud Barzani paid a visit to Tehran with the goal of reinforcing bilateral ties, a sense of brotherhood and emphasizing the shared goals of both governments. Iran’s Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi’s and Barzani both decreed this week that the issue of PJAK rebels, at war with Iran was “over”. This was a symbolic statement and if the long-term situation is upheld then this proves a significant achievement for all sides.

There is no doubt that it was more the mediation of the Kurdistan Region than the firepower of Iran that resulted in the accomplishment of a ceasefire between PJAK and Tehran.

In a similar vein Barzani is due to make an official visit to Turkish sometime this month at the request of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The common theme will be ensuring the peace and security of the Turkish border, reemphasizing strong ties between Erbil and Ankara but also the direct involvement of the KRG in facilitating a solution that can appease all sites and achieve elusive peace.

PKK leader Murat Karayılan’s recent statement reaffirmed the belief that Barzani will be at the forefront of a peaceful solution to the Turkish struggle in Turkey.

Barzani message is likely to be a reiteration of a tough line with the PKK, that the Kurdistan region can no longer accept any entity that will jeopardize their crucial relations with Turkey. However, Barzani will also make clear to Ankara of the need to settle their internal affairs in a peaceful and democratic fashion and not punish all Kurds within Turkey as well as the Kurdistan region for the actions of a few.

Turkey has tried and frequently failed to entice the KRG into a direct struggle with fellow Kurds and at the same time has failed to enact practical reform that the Turkish Kurds have so long craved with their democratic opening program a case of stop-start at best.

The solution to the PKK struggle lies in Turkey’s hand and with the right overtures and the crucial support of the KRG there is every chance that true peace can be achieved in Turkey.

In order to achieve such a vital solution, the Turkish government must pay serious heed to the demands of the PKK and allow direct and constructive negotiations with the PKK leadership. Turkey cannot simply choose to ignore the PKK demands, take for granted the Kurdish desire in Turkey by continuously neglecting democratic and constitutional reform and at the same time to choose to violate the sovereignty of the Kurdistan Region.

If Turkey is intent on true and long lasting resolution to its age-old Kurdish dilemma then it needs to make difficult choices and choose a clear way forward. It cannot exclusively be on terms that they the dictate and expect resolutions as they desire. There many factors and parties that Turkey need to consider and Ankara must make difficult sacrifices.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

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Accept my hand as a brother and an equal

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The days of colonialism, imperialism, subjugation and inequality are over. I have as much right to live in peace and security as you. I am not better than you and you are not better than me. This is as much my lands yours, as much my earth as yours and as much my God as yours. I am willing to participate and cooperate with you in fraternity, equality and mutual prosperity.

All human beings were created equal as was all ethnicities. Your worth to me is not dictated by your self-proclaimed wealth, class or strategic standing. The death or suffering of one of mine is equal to the death and suffering of one of yours. The tears of my mother are as sacred and regrettable as the tears of yours.

As we cry for help and our homes lie in rubble and ruin, we ask you to look at us as no different as any of your own. Our earthquake tragedy in Van shows us that we are all mere mortals and nothing but flesh and blood at the mercy of our Lord.

I implore you to reach out a helping hand, not to see our pain as a distant anguish but a travesty and pain of your own.

A time like this shows us the need for spirituality, unity, kindness and humility. Let our suffering and pain become the source of future joy and reconciliation. Let this be a stepping stone to a mutual turning of a new page, to the beginning of a new chapter, to the commencement of a new age.

While you touch others with kindness and generosity abroad, please do not forget that charity begins at home. Our hands are outstretched and eagerly expectant yours in return.

The right to democracy, peace and security is not solely yours but a right of mine and all of mankind. We are not any less deserving than any nation to be party to human rights and international charters. We are tired and frustrated from decades of turmoil, suffering and been harshly caught in the cross fire of your policies.  Please do not tarnish our image and peaceful nature for the acts and policies of a few amongst us.

I am not a terrorist and do not want wish to spill blood. Please respect my wish to live in peace, to strive for a better future for me and my children and to live in unmolested joy and freedom. Respect my right to live in democracy, in equality and according to the culture and ways of my forefathers.

I am as proud of my history as you are of yours, as proud of my heritage and as proud of my ancestry. My notion of national pride is based on a mutual respect of yours and not as a means of treating other nationalities, cultures and histories as sub-standard to mine.

Together we are stronger. Together we can build bridges. In togetherness lie our destiny and the gates of our common prosperity. Accept my hand as a brother and an equal. Let us embrace peace, love and friendship. Our past may be mired by suffering but our future can built according to our heart and desire.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Various Misc.

Withdraw without condition

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As Turkey enters Iraq for “revenge”, the wider context is overlooked once more  

A chilling and coordinated attack by PKK rebels that led to the death of at least 24 Turkish soldiers and many wounded sent shockwaves throughoutTurkey.

Such was the determination for a harsh response that the Turkish army quickly launched a massive ground invasion of Kurdistan on yet another quest to defeat the rebels. “A large-scale land operation, backed by air strikes, has begun in five separate spots insideTurkeyand across the border with 22 battalions,” the military general staff said in a statement.   

Turkish president, Abdullah Gul had vowed “revenge” and a stern response under a watchful and enraged public eye. The harsh Turkish reprisal may benefit the PKK as it means a renewed straining of ties between Ankara and Erbil, places the Iraqi Kurds into a difficult corner and simultaneously diminishes the chances of a political resolution to the Kurdish problem inTurkey.

The President of the Kurdistan Region, Massoud Barzani, strongly condemned the latest attacks while labeling the event as a “crime”. With Nechirvan Barzani already inAnkara, the common theme was to soothe Turkish tensions and reinforce brotherhood betweenTurkeyand the Kurdistan Region. However, ultimately Ankara would not be swayed from its intent to show the PKK and possibly even Erbil just who calls the shots in the region. 

Clashes between troops and rebels have intensified in the aftermath of the recent national elections inTurkey, resulting in significant aerial bombardment and shelling by Turkish forces in the border regions in recent months. However, the manner of the recent attacks, which coincided with the establishment of a committee to oversee the rewriting of the Turkish constitution, sent alarm bells ringing in Ankara and under a cloud of public anger forced the Turkish government to respond with strong measures.

The attacks by rebels resulted in the biggest military death toll since 1993 and were met with international wide condemnation.

As many political powers renewed their support for the Turkish quest to eradicate the rebels, there is a great danger that once againTurkeyand its allies are overlooking the wider context of events.

Such was the nature of the attack that none would expect Turkey remain idle but it is easy for foreign powers to look at this as an individual incident rather than with the framework that the issue deserves.

This is a deep-rooted, emotively-charged and bloody 27-year war that has cost in excess of 40,000 lives, billions of dollars, destruction of villages and caused immense mental scarring. This is the not the first attack and certainly not the last. History has clearly proved the limits of military power even for the second largest army in NATO.

As long as the Kurdish political actors in Turkey remain weak and the Kurds are deprived of real political representation, the PKK will continue to act as the default flag-bearer of the Kurds, even if it does not necessarily represent the greater will of the Kurdish population. The growing focus on PKK as the source of the Kurdish problem and the ongoing energy consumed by the government to defeat the rebels as a way to overcome the Kurdish issue places the Kurds into a difficult predicament.

The greater Kurdish population yearns for peace and not violence and is tired and frustrated from decades of political, social and economic handicaps that the ongoing conflict has caused.

Turkey has acted against the PKK and this is a natural retaliation for any government, however, it needs to urgently employ a dual approach whereby it also reassures the greater Kurdish population of the Turkish will for fraternity, to solve their age old Kurdish dilemma, that the democratic opening remains a priority and that the government does not intend to punish all Kurds for the actions of a few.

The era of violence in the pursuit of political goals has certainly diminished but Turkey must also prove that it has turned the page not just in words but also in practical steps.

The Turkish state belongs to both the Kurds and Turks and this is a fact that nothing can mask. Only true reconciliation and brotherhood can propelTurkeyto the heights it intends to achieve and mentalities and policies of the past can never exclusively disadvantage the Kurdish populated south eastern part ofTurkey.

The Kurds can be factor that fuels a new strategic strength of Turkey in Europe and Asia or it can be factor that will indefinitely blight and drag the whole of Turkeyas a “sick power”.

As emotions run dangerously high inTurkey, it is of paramount importance that the US, European and regional powers act as a blanket of comfort to both Turks and Kurds. Obliterating the Iraqi Kurdistan regional areas with a show of firepower will never achieve Turkish goals. If a military solution was such a viable reality all these years, why wouldTurkeywait until 2011 and thousands of lives later to resolve this issue?

US President Barrack Obama, whilst harshly condemning the attacks inTurkey, emphasizes that “…the Turkish people, like people everywhere, deserve to live in peace, security and dignity.” While Obama’s statement is valid, there should not be hesitation by world powers to utter the word “Kurds” in the same breath.

There should be a distinct emphasis on the equal rights of the Kurdish population to live in peace, security and within the framework of international charters. While Turkey has made a number of strides in this regard, it is by no means at the level expected for a global power that is actively seeking to expand its sphere of influence.

Turkey continues to live under fear of its significant Kurdish minority rather than embracing them as a true and integral component of the state. At the same time, the Kurds look towards Turkeywith distrust and lack of conviction.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon emphasised the necessity for both Iraq and Turkeyto work together to end what he deemed as “unacceptable” cross-border attacks by Kurdish PKK rebels. Ban’s insistence that the sovereignty of both Turkey and Iraq must be respected was a welcome step. This matter is not simply about appeasing angry or nationalistic sentiments inAnkara, the matter has far greater ramifications across the region.

Within Turkey itself, the much maligned BDP found itself engrossed in the cross fire yet again. It has been subject to heavy criticism by the Turkish government which has culminated in an all time low for relations between both parties as a result of the Kurdish boycott of parliament and the subsequent unilateral declaration of democratic autonomy in the Kurdish areas.

BDP co-chairpersons Gülten Kışanak and Selahattin Demirtaş called for peace as the only solution in a written statement, “We say ‘enough’ to this war and these deaths. The painful picture today once again shows that Turkey urgently needs peace…”

In spite of calls for unity and reconciliation by the BDP, the AKP government quickly poured water on any air of sincerity or warmth generated by such overtures by once again branding the BDP and the PKK with the same brush.

The AKP, which still received a large portion of Kurdish votes, should not renege on its promise to implement its democratic opening or to focus on developing the south eastern region. The idea that there is no longer a Kurdish problem but a terrorism problem is wrong. The so-called terrorist issue comes from the Kurdish problem the Kurdish problem does not come from the terrorism issue.

One of the main reasons for the stalling of the democratic opening was the increasing nationalist resistance inTurkey. The rising hawkish voices ensure that the hands of the government become restrained and progress reverses rather than making any significant strides forward.

As Turkey answers Kurdish rebels with a strong fist, it must also show the Kurds that it will not forsake their rights, demands and voices for the sake of the appeasing only the Turkish sentiments.

More importantly, Turkey should do all it can to respect the sovereignty of the KRG and withdraw without condition.

First Published On: Kurdish Globe

Other Publication Sources: Hewler Post (Kurdish), Online Opinion, eKurd, Various Misc.